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Newcastle vs Bournemouth — Premier League Prediction 5 September 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
Premier League
2
VS
1
schedule 05 Sept, 12:30
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 04 Sept 2026

Likely Goal Scorers
sports_soccer Yoane Wissa sports_soccer Evanilson
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Kickoff in

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Newcastle vs Bournemouth in the Premier League. Newcastle is the favourite with a 43% win probability. Bournemouth has a 32% chance of winning and 25% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Played at a raucous St. James' Park, Newcastle seeks to cement their top-6 position. Historically, Bournemouth has been a 'banana skin' for the Magpies, including a win here in April 2026. However, the tactical setup under Jaissle has made Newcastle more resilient in transitions. Mild, cloudy weather (16°C) is expected, perfect for the high-octane pressing styles of both teams.

#NEWBOU #PremierLeague #FootballMeister

analytics

Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
25%
15%

Magpies Tyneside Dominance

60%

Newcastle exploits Bournemouth's high line through Elanga and Wissa, securing a comfortable win as the visitors fail to convert their own high-turnover chances.

High-Intensity Pressing Stalemate

25%

Both teams effectively neutralize each other through aggressive pressing in the middle third, resulting in a score draw defined by individual errors rather than sustained possession.

Cherries Counter-Punch

15%

Bournemouth repeats their 2026 spring success by sitting deeper and punishing Newcastle on the break via Evanilson.

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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Matchday

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City FC 2 2 0 0 +4 6
2 Arsenal FC 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 Hull City AFC 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Chelsea FC 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Brentford FC 2 1 1 0 +3 4
6 Newcastle United FC 2 1 1 0 +2 4
7 Everton FC 2 1 1 0 +2 4
8 Leeds United FC 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2 1 0 1 +3 3
10 Manchester United FC 2 1 0 1 +1 3
11 Sunderland AFC 2 1 0 1 0 3
12 Ipswich Town FC 2 1 0 1 -2 3
13 Liverpool FC 2 0 2 0 0 2
14 AFC Bournemouth 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Nottingham Forest FC 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Fulham FC 2 0 0 2 -2 0
17 Coventry City FC 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 Crystal Palace FC 2 0 0 2 -5 0
19 Aston Villa FC 2 0 0 2 -5 0
19 Tottenham Hotspur FC 2 0 0 2 -5 0
Newcastle
Bournemouth
percent

Coach AI Odds

Newcastle
43% · 25% · 32%
Bournemouth
W D L

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.55

Home xG

1.42

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Newcastle Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 2 D · 1 L
29/8 Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-2 Newcastle United FC W 1.65
23/8 Newcastle United FC 2-2 Liverpool FC D 1.45
24/5 Fulham FC 2-0 Newcastle United FC L 1.48
17/5 Newcastle United FC 3-1 West Ham United FC W 1.62
10/5 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Newcastle United FC D 1.52

Bournemouth Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 3 D · 1 L
29/8 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Everton FC D 1.65
23/8 Manchester City FC 2-1 AFC Bournemouth L 1.25
24/5 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 AFC Bournemouth D 1.74
19/5 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City FC D 1.35
9/5 Fulham FC 0-1 AFC Bournemouth W 1.57
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Form Disparity: Newcastle enters with massive momentum after beating Spurs (2-0 away) and drawing with Liverpool, while Bournemouth is winless in their first two outings.

trending_up 2

Tactical Shift: Both teams have new managers (Matthias Jaissle vs Marco Rose) favoring high-intensity pressing, likely leading to a high-turnover, transition-heavy match with high PPDA.

person 3

Efficiency vs Volume: Newcastle is currently overperforming their xG (4 goals from ~3.10 xG), whereas Bournemouth is struggling to convert chances (2 goals from ~2.90 xG).

medical_services

Injuries & Absentees

Newcastle is managing without Dan Burn (Ankle) and William Osula (Foot), which thins their defensive and attacking depth. However, the presence of Malick Thiaw and Yoane Wissa in the squad minimizes the immediate impact. Bournemouth remains concerned over the match fitness of Tyler Adams, which could leave gaps in their midfield pivot against Newcastle's energetic trio.

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Key Players

Newcastle

Yoane Wissa ST
personIn Form
Bruno Guimarães CM
personKey Threat

Bournemouth

Evanilson ST
personIn Form
Justin Kluivert LW
personKey Threat

The analyses and predictions on this page are generated by artificial intelligence and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. This is not gambling advice.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 43% for Newcastle, 25% draw and 32% for Bournemouth.

What is the recent form of Newcastle and Bournemouth?

Newcastle form (last 5): 2W-2D-1L. Bournemouth form (last 5): 1W-3D-1L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Newcastle is managing without Dan Burn (Ankle) and William Osula (Foot), which thins their defensive and attacking depth. However, the presence of Malick Thiaw and Yoane Wissa in the squad minimizes the immediate impact. Bournemouth remains concerned over the match fitness of Tyler Adams, which could leave gaps in their midfield pivot against Newcastle's energetic trio.

What are the possible match scenarios for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Magpies Tyneside Dominance (60%): Newcastle exploits Bournemouth's high line through Elanga and Wissa, securing a comfortable win as the visitors fail to convert their own high-turnover chances. — High-Intensity Pressing Stalemate (25%): Both teams effectively neutralize each other through aggressive pressing in the middle third, resulting in a score draw defined by individual errors rather than sustained possession. — Cherries Counter-Punch (15%): Bournemouth repeats their 2026 spring success by sitting deeper and punishing Newcastle on the break via Evanilson.

What are the current standings for Newcastle and Bournemouth in the Premier League?

Newcastle are 6th in the Premier League with 4 points from 2 games. Bournemouth are 14th with 1 points from 2 games.

What time does Newcastle vs Bournemouth kick off?

Newcastle vs Bournemouth kicks off on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 12:30 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

What are the key factors for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Newcastle vs Bournemouth: 1. Form Disparity: Newcastle enters with massive momentum after beating Spurs (2-0 away) and drawing with Liverpool, while Bournemouth is winless in their first two outings. 2. Tactical Shift: Both teams have new managers (Matthias Jaissle vs Marco Rose) favoring high-intensity pressing, likely leading to a high-turnover, transition-heavy match with high PPDA. 3. Efficiency vs Volume: Newcastle is currently overperforming their xG (4 goals from ~3.10 xG), whereas Bournemouth is struggling to convert chances (2 goals from ~2.90 xG)..

Who are the key players for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Coach AI has identified the following key players for Newcastle vs Bournemouth. Newcastle: Yoane Wissa (In Form), Bruno Guimarães (Key Threat). Bournemouth: Evanilson (In Form), Justin Kluivert (Key Threat).

What are the Coach AI odds for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Coach AI calculates the following outcome probabilities for Newcastle vs Bournemouth: Newcastle wins 43%, draw 25%, Bournemouth wins 32%. The most likely outcome is Newcastle with 43%.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.