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Newcastle vs Bournemouth — Premier League Prediction 18 April 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
Premier League
1
VS
1
schedule 18 Apr, 14:00 · Referee: Thomas Bramall (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Final result
1 – 2
CoachAI prediction
1 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 for Newcastle vs Bournemouth in the Premier League. Newcastle is the favourite with a 46% win probability. Bournemouth has a 28% chance of winning and 26% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Newcastle vs Bournemouth

This is a clash of two teams moving in opposite directions. Newcastle, once top-five contenders, are in a tailspin (14th), while Bournemouth (11th) is enjoying its longest unbeaten run in top-flight history. Motivation is high for Bournemouth's Andoni Iraola, who recently announced his departure and wants to leave a European legacy. St. James' Park remains intimidating, but the tactical 'parked bus' from Bournemouth combined with Newcastle's lack of a creative pivot often leads to frustration.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

40%
35%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

1) Tactical Stalemate (40%): Bournemouth's high draw rate (15/32) and Newcastle's struggle to finish chances suggest a repeat of their previous 0-0 or a low-scoring 1-1. 2) The 'Cherries' Counter-Punch (35%): Bournemouth exploits Newcastle's high line and missing defensive cover to win 1-2. 3) Home Bounce (25%): An inspired performance by Anthony Gordon or a surprise early return for Guimarães leads to a narrow 1-0 or 2-1 Newcastle win. The data strongly points to the visitors avoiding defeat (X2).
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
4 Aston Villa FC 38 19 8 11 +7 65
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
Newcastle
Bournemouth

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.68

Home xG

1.55

Away xG

Upset Chance

High

Risk of unexpected result

Newcastle Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
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▼
▲
▼
12/4 Crystal Palace FC 2-1 Newcastle United FC L 1.55
22/3 Newcastle United FC 1-2 Sunderland AFC L 1.80
18/3 FC Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle United FC L 1.22
14/3 Chelsea FC 0-1 Newcastle United FC W 1.45
10/3 Newcastle United FC 1-1 FC Barcelona D 1.68

Bournemouth Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 4 D · 0 L
▲
▼
▼
▼
11/4 Arsenal FC 1-2 AFC Bournemouth W 1.05
20/3 AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United FC D 1.75
14/3 Burnley FC 0-0 AFC Bournemouth D 1.70
3/3 AFC Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford FC D 1.75
28/2 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland AFC D 1.85
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Key Factors

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Bournemouth's 13-match unbeaten streak and Newcastle's poor home form (4 losses in last 5 league games at St James' Park).

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Extreme tactical vulnerability in Newcastle's midfield due to Joelinton's suspension and captain Bruno Guimarães' fitness concerns (mumps/hamstring).

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Clinical efficiency vs. Volume: Bournemouth’s Eli Junior Kroupi is massively overperforming his xG (10 goals from 3.82 xG), while Newcastle consistently fails to convert high-xG chances.

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Injuries & Absentees

Newcastle is effectively missing its 'spine'. Fabian Schär (foot surgery) leaves the defense exposed, while the absence of the Guimarães-Joelinton duo removes the engine and creative hub. Replacement midfielders like Longstaff or Willock lack the same transition-defense awareness. Bournemouth is missing Lewis Cook and Justin Kluivert, but the form of Alex Scott and Kroupi has successfully mitigated these losses.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 with a win probability of 46% for Newcastle, 26% draw and 28% for Bournemouth.

What is the recent form of Newcastle and Bournemouth?

Newcastle form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Bournemouth form (last 5): 1W-4D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Newcastle is effectively missing its 'spine'. Fabian Schär (foot surgery) leaves the defense exposed, while the absence of the Guimarães-Joelinton duo removes the engine and creative hub. Replacement midfielders like Longstaff or Willock lack the same transition-defense awareness. Bournemouth is missing Lewis Cook and Justin Kluivert, but the form of Alex Scott and Kroupi has successfully mitigated these losses.

What are the current standings for Newcastle and Bournemouth in the Premier League?

Newcastle are 12th in the Premier League with 49 points from 38 games. Bournemouth are 6th with 57 points from 38 games.

What time does Newcastle vs Bournemouth kick off?

Newcastle vs Bournemouth kicks off on Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

The referee for Newcastle vs Bournemouth in the Premier League is Thomas Bramall.

What are the key factors for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Newcastle vs Bournemouth: 1. Bournemouth's 13-match unbeaten streak and Newcastle's poor home form (4 losses in last 5 league games at St James' Park). 2. Extreme tactical vulnerability in Newcastle's midfield due to Joelinton's suspension and captain Bruno Guimarães' fitness concerns (mumps/hamstring). 3. Clinical efficiency vs. Volume: Bournemouth’s Eli Junior Kroupi is massively overperforming his xG (10 goals from 3.82 xG), while Newcastle consistently fails to convert high-xG chances..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.