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Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove — Premier League Prediction 11 February 2026

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Premier League
1
VS
1
schedule 11 Feb, 19:30 · Referee: Peter Bankes (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Brighton Hove
Brighton Hove
Final result
1 – 0
CoachAI prediction
1 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 for Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove in the Premier League. Aston Villa is the favourite with a 49% win probability. Brighton Hove has a 25% chance of winning and 26% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove

The match is set against a 'UK Snow Bomb' backdrop with freezing temperatures and heavy rain/sleet forecast for Birmingham, which historically favors a more attritional, lower-scoring game. Psychologically, Villa is under immense pressure to avoid a historic third consecutive home loss, while Brighton’s Fabian Hürzeler is desperate to convert possession dominance into clinical finishes after a string of frustrating draws.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
60%
42%
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Scenario Explanation

1 goal) makes a runaway victory unlikely. Statistically, Brighton's 60% draw rate this season is the strongest indicator. The value tip lies in the 'Player Card' market; referee Peter Bankes averages 4+ cards per game, and with a depleted Villa midfield facing Brighton's quick rotations, Douglas Luiz is a high-probability candidate for a booking. A 1-1 draw offers the most realistic alignment between Brighton's territorial dominance and Villa's 'Watkins Bogeyman' threat on the counter. Probability: Draw (42%), Villa Win (30%), Brighton Win (28%).
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
2 Manchester City FC 38 23 9 6 +42 78
3 Manchester United FC 38 20 11 7 +19 71
4 Aston Villa FC 38 19 8 11 +7 65
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
Aston Villa
Brighton Hove

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.45

Home xG

1.62

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Aston Villa Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 2 D · 2 L
▼
▲
▼
7/2 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa FC D 1.28
1/2 Aston Villa FC 0-1 Brentford FC L 1.32
25/1 Newcastle United FC 0-2 Aston Villa FC W 1.38
18/1 Aston Villa FC 0-1 Everton FC L 1.58
7/1 Crystal Palace FC 0-0 Aston Villa FC D

Brighton Hove Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 3 D · 2 L
▼
▼
▼
▼
8/2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Crystal Palace FC L 1.67
31/1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-1 Everton FC D 1.68
24/1 Fulham FC 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC L 1.55
19/1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-1 AFC Bournemouth D 1.75
7/1 Manchester City FC 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC D
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Key Factors

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Brighton’s chronic 'Draw Specialist' status (15 draws in 25 matches) and consistent underperformance of xG (-4.4 delta) suggests a high-floor, low-ceiling output.

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Aston Villa's severe midfield crisis with John McGinn, Youri Tielemans, and Boubacar Kamara all sidelined, forcing a heavy reliance on a recently returned Douglas Luiz.

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The 'Watkins Factor': Ollie Watkins has scored 9 goals in 9 games against Brighton, the best goal-per-minute ratio of any player against a single opponent in the league.

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Injuries & Absentees

Aston Villa is crippled in the engine room; the loss of McGinn and Tielemans removes their primary ball progression and leadership, likely forcing Amadou Onana into a more restricted defensive role. Brighton welcomes back key defender Jan Paul van Hecke, which stabilizes their backline, though they remain without the creativity of Solly March and the presence of Mats Wieffer in midfield.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 with a win probability of 49% for Aston Villa, 26% draw and 25% for Brighton Hove.

What is the recent form of Aston Villa and Brighton Hove?

Aston Villa form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L. Brighton Hove form (last 5): 0W-3D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove?

Aston Villa is crippled in the engine room; the loss of McGinn and Tielemans removes their primary ball progression and leadership, likely forcing Amadou Onana into a more restricted defensive role. Brighton welcomes back key defender Jan Paul van Hecke, which stabilizes their backline, though they remain without the creativity of Solly March and the presence of Mats Wieffer in midfield.

What are the current standings for Aston Villa and Brighton Hove in the Premier League?

Aston Villa are 4th in the Premier League with 65 points from 38 games. Brighton Hove are 8th with 53 points from 38 games.

What time does Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove kick off?

Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove kicks off on Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 20:30 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove?

The referee for Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove in the Premier League is Peter Bankes.

What are the key factors for Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Aston Villa vs Brighton Hove: 1. Brighton’s chronic 'Draw Specialist' status (15 draws in 25 matches) and consistent underperformance of xG (-4.4 delta) suggests a high-floor, low-ceiling output. 2. Aston Villa's severe midfield crisis with John McGinn, Youri Tielemans, and Boubacar Kamara all sidelined, forcing a heavy reliance on a recently returned Douglas Luiz. 3. The 'Watkins Factor': Ollie Watkins has scored 9 goals in 9 games against Brighton, the best goal-per-minute ratio of any player against a single opponent in the league..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.