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West Ham vs Leeds United — Premier League Prediction 24 May 2026

West Ham
West Ham
Premier League
2
VS
1
schedule 24 May, 15:00 · Referee: Anthony Taylor (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Leeds United
Leeds United
Final result
3 – 0
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✓ Outcome correct
Kickoff in

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for West Ham vs Leeds United in the Premier League. West Ham is the favourite with a 52% win probability. Leeds United has a 24% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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West Ham vs Leeds United

It is the final day of the 2025/26 Premier League season. West Ham's 14-year stay in the top flight is on the line; they must win and hope Tottenham lose to Everton. Referee Anthony Taylor (averaging 3.97 yellows) takes charge of a high-pressure atmosphere. Leeds are in 'holiday mode' safely in mid-table, though their 8-game unbeaten run suggests they aren't completely checked out.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
25%
15%

The Survival Surge

60%

Driven by a raucous home crowd and relegation dread, West Ham secures a narrow one-goal victory through a Jarrod Bowen masterclass.

The Counter-Trap

25%

As West Ham pushes high for a late winning goal, Leeds exploits the gaps with their superior transition speed to win the match on the break.

The Heat Slog

15%

The 31°C heatwave drains player energy, resulting in a low-intensity stalemate that effectively seals West Ham's relegation.

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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
West Ham
Leeds United

Most likely scorelines

2-1 15% 1-1 12% 1-2 10%
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Correct Score Prediction

AI-calculated probability per scoreline

Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 15%
1-1 12%
1-2 10%
Leeds United (Away)
West Ham (Home)
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
7.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1
8.0%
12.0%
10.0%
3.0%
0.0%
2
6.0%
15.0%
7.0%
1.0%
0.0%
3
3.0%
8.0%
4.0%
1.0%
0.0%
4
1.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%

The 'must-win' context for West Ham combined with Leeds' defensive midfield absences shifts probability away from low-scoring draws toward 'desperation scorelines' like 2-1, 1-2, or a high-variance 3-1.

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.38

Home xG

1.65

Away xG

Upset Chance

High

Risk of unexpected result

West Ham Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
17/5 Newcastle United FC 3-1 West Ham United FC L 1.35
10/5 West Ham United FC 0-1 Arsenal FC L 1.25
2/5 Brentford FC 3-0 West Ham United FC L 1.24
25/4 West Ham United FC 2-1 Everton FC W 1.35
20/4 Crystal Palace FC 0-0 West Ham United FC D 1.22

Leeds United Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 2 D · 0 L
17/5 Leeds United FC 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion FC W 1.58
11/5 Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-1 Leeds United FC D 1.62
1/5 Leeds United FC 3-1 Burnley FC W 1.88
22/4 AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds United FC D 1.45
18/4 Leeds United FC 3-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC W 1.72
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Survival Stakes: West Ham (18th) are in a 'must-win' scenario to avoid relegation, while Leeds (14th) are mathematically safe and unbeaten in 8 matches.

trending_up 2

External Variables: An extreme London heatwave (31°C) is forecast for matchday, which will significantly impact pressing intensity and favor a more clinical, low-tempo approach.

person 3

Travel vs. Home Form: Leeds have only won 2 away games all season (D9, L7), whereas West Ham have lost only 1 of their last 7 matches at the London Stadium.

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Injuries & Absentees

West Ham are at near-full strength with Jarrod Bowen (10 assists this season) and Valentin Castellanos leading the line. In contrast, Leeds are missing vital midfield anchors Anton Stach and Ilia Gruev, alongside Noah Okafor. While Pascal Struijk returns to the Leeds defense, the lack of starting midfield stability may hamper their transition game.

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Expected Lineups

Expected — may change before kickoff
West Ham Expected

4-2-3-1

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Summerville LW
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Castellanos ST
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Bowen RW
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Pablo CAM
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Soucek CDM
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Fernandes CM
person
Diouf LB
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Mavropanos CB
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Disasi CB
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Wan-Bissaka RB
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Hermansen GK

Summerville starts against his former club; Castellanos preferred over Wilson for his recent xG involvement.

Leeds United Estimated

3-5-2

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Nmecha ST
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Calvert-Lewin ST
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Aaronson CAM
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Justin LWB
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Ampadu CDM
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Tanaka CM
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Bogle RWB
person
Rodon CB
person
Bijol CB
person
Struijk CB
person
Darlow GK

Makeshift midfield due to injuries to Stach and Gruev; Calvert-Lewin seeks his 15th goal of the season.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for West Ham vs Leeds United?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 52% for West Ham, 24% draw and 24% for Leeds United.

What is the recent form of West Ham and Leeds United?

West Ham form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Leeds United form (last 5): 3W-2D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for West Ham vs Leeds United?

West Ham are at near-full strength with Jarrod Bowen (10 assists this season) and Valentin Castellanos leading the line. In contrast, Leeds are missing vital midfield anchors Anton Stach and Ilia Gruev, alongside Noah Okafor. While Pascal Struijk returns to the Leeds defense, the lack of starting midfield stability may hamper their transition game.

What is the most likely correct score for West Ham vs Leeds United?

According to the score probability matrix, 2-1 is the most likely scoreline (15%), followed by 1-1 (12%) and 1-2 (10%).

What are the possible match scenarios for West Ham vs Leeds United?

The Survival Surge (60%): Driven by a raucous home crowd and relegation dread, West Ham secures a narrow one-goal victory through a Jarrod Bowen masterclass. — The Counter-Trap (25%): As West Ham pushes high for a late winning goal, Leeds exploits the gaps with their superior transition speed to win the match on the break. — The Heat Slog (15%): The 31°C heatwave drains player energy, resulting in a low-intensity stalemate that effectively seals West Ham's relegation.

What are the current standings for West Ham and Leeds United in the Premier League?

West Ham are 18th in the Premier League with 39 points from 38 games. Leeds United are 14th with 47 points from 38 games.

What are the expected lineups for West Ham vs Leeds United?

Expected lineup West Ham (4-2-3-1): Mads Hermansen, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Axel Disasi, Malick Diouf, Tomas Soucek, Mateus Fernandes, Jarrod Bowen, Pablo, Crysencio Summerville, Valentin Castellanos. Expected lineup Leeds United (3-5-2): Karl Darlow, Joe Rodon, Jaka Bijol, Pascal Struijk, Jayden Bogle, Ethan Ampadu, Ao Tanaka, James Justin, Brenden Aaronson, Lukas Nmecha, Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Lineups are based on the most recent sources and may change before kickoff.

What time does West Ham vs Leeds United kick off?

West Ham vs Leeds United kicks off on Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 17:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for West Ham vs Leeds United?

The referee for West Ham vs Leeds United in the Premier League is Anthony Taylor.

What are the key factors for West Ham vs Leeds United?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for West Ham vs Leeds United: 1. Survival Stakes: West Ham (18th) are in a 'must-win' scenario to avoid relegation, while Leeds (14th) are mathematically safe and unbeaten in 8 matches. 2. External Variables: An extreme London heatwave (31°C) is forecast for matchday, which will significantly impact pressing intensity and favor a more clinical, low-tempo approach. 3. Travel vs. Home Form: Leeds have only won 2 away games all season (D9, L7), whereas West Ham have lost only 1 of their last 7 matches at the London Stadium..

What are the bookmaker odds for West Ham vs Leeds United?

Bookmakers give West Ham a 55% win probability, 24% draw and Leeds United 21% chance of winning. Coach AI estimates 43% for {{HOME_TEAM}}, 25% draw and 32% for {{AWAY_TEAM}}.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.