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Sunderland vs Liverpool — Premier League Prediction 11 February 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
Premier League
1
VS
1
schedule 11 Feb, 20:15 · Referee: Chris Kavanagh (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
Final result
0 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 for Sunderland vs Liverpool in the Premier League. Liverpool is the favourite with a 55% win probability. Sunderland has a 20% chance of winning and 25% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Sunderland vs Liverpool

This is a Wednesday night fixture at a hostile Stadium of Light. Weather forecasts predict cold, damp conditions (39°F) with a high probability of rain, favoring Sunderland's physical, direct style over Liverpool's intricate passing. Psychologically, Liverpool is vulnerable, having won only one of their last seven league games, while Sunderland is playing with the 'house money' of an overperforming promoted side currently challenging for European spots.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
25%
40%
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Scenario Explanation

The 'Narrative' suggests a classic trap game for the Reds. Liverpool will likely dominate possession (60%+) but struggle to penetrate Sunderland's compact 4-4-2. Sunderland’s strategy involves absorbing pressure and utilizing Granit Xhaka’s elite distribution to find runners like Wilson Isidor behind Liverpool's high line. The 'Value Tip' lies in the Under 2.5 goals or Sunderland Double Chance (1X); the market overvalues Liverpool's historical status despite their current right-back vulnerability and poor conversion rate. Probability Estimates: Home Win 25%, Draw 40%, Away Win 35%.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
3 Manchester United FC 38 20 11 7 +19 71
4 Aston Villa FC 38 19 8 11 +7 65
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
Sunderland
Liverpool

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.25

Home xG

1.78

Away xG

Upset Chance

High

Risk of unexpected result

Sunderland Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 0 D · 3 L
▼
▲
▲
7/2 Arsenal FC 3-0 Sunderland AFC L 0.80
2/2 Sunderland AFC 3-0 Burnley FC W 1.35
24/1 West Ham United FC 3-1 Sunderland AFC L 1.38
17/1 Sunderland AFC 2-1 Crystal Palace FC W 1.15
7/1 Brentford FC 3-0 Sunderland AFC L

Liverpool Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 0 D · 2 L
▼
▲
▲
▲
8/2 Liverpool FC 1-2 Manchester City FC L 1.88
31/1 Liverpool FC 4-1 Newcastle United FC W 1.92
28/1 Liverpool FC 6-0 Qarabağ Ağdam FK W 2.35
24/1 AFC Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool FC L 1.95
21/1 Olympique de Marseille 0-3 Liverpool FC W 1.82
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Key Factors

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Sunderland's low-block 4-4-2 led by Régis Le Bris has made them the Premier League's premier 'Giant Killers' this season, specifically engineered to frustrate possession-heavy sides like Liverpool.

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Liverpool is enduring a catastrophic right-back crisis with Frimpong and Bradley out and Szoboszlai suspended; Curtis Jones is the likely makeshift replacement, creating a massive defensive mismatch against Sunderland's direct vertical counters.

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Statistical Regression: Sunderland ranks second-to-last in xG created but fourth in the table, while Liverpool has significantly underperformed their xG in recent losses (1.88 xG vs Man City resulting in only 1 goal).

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Injuries & Absentees

Liverpool faces a 'selection nightmare' in defense. The absence of Jeremie Frimpong (Muscle) and Conor Bradley (Knee) removes all natural right-backs. Dominik Szoboszlai's suspension (red card vs City) further depletes the midfield engine. While Joe Gomez is a doubt, Arne Slot is expected to deploy a makeshift backline including Curtis Jones at RB, which significantly compromises Liverpool's ability to defend wide transitions. Sunderland remains largely at full strength, relying on the veteran leadership of Granit Xhaka and the aerial dominance of Dan Ballard.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 with a win probability of 20% for Sunderland, 25% draw and 55% for Liverpool.

What is the recent form of Sunderland and Liverpool?

Sunderland form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L. Liverpool form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Liverpool faces a 'selection nightmare' in defense. The absence of Jeremie Frimpong (Muscle) and Conor Bradley (Knee) removes all natural right-backs. Dominik Szoboszlai's suspension (red card vs City) further depletes the midfield engine. While Joe Gomez is a doubt, Arne Slot is expected to deploy a makeshift backline including Curtis Jones at RB, which significantly compromises Liverpool's ability to defend wide transitions. Sunderland remains largely at full strength, relying on the veteran leadership of Granit Xhaka and the aerial dominance of Dan Ballard.

What are the current standings for Sunderland and Liverpool in the Premier League?

Sunderland are 7th in the Premier League with 54 points from 38 games. Liverpool are 5th with 60 points from 38 games.

What time does Sunderland vs Liverpool kick off?

Sunderland vs Liverpool kicks off on Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 21:15 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

The referee for Sunderland vs Liverpool in the Premier League is Chris Kavanagh.

What are the key factors for Sunderland vs Liverpool?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Sunderland vs Liverpool: 1. Sunderland's low-block 4-4-2 led by Régis Le Bris has made them the Premier League's premier 'Giant Killers' this season, specifically engineered to frustrate possession-heavy sides like Liverpool. 2. Liverpool is enduring a catastrophic right-back crisis with Frimpong and Bradley out and Szoboszlai suspended; Curtis Jones is the likely makeshift replacement, creating a massive defensive mismatch against Sunderland's direct vertical counters. 3. Statistical Regression: Sunderland ranks second-to-last in xG created but fourth in the table, while Liverpool has significantly underperformed their xG in recent losses (1.88 xG vs Man City resulting in only 1 goal)..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.