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Sunderland vs Brighton Hove — Premier League Prediction 14 March 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
Premier League
1
VS
2
schedule 14 Mar, 15:00 · Referee: Thomas Kirk (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Brighton Hove
Brighton Hove
Final result
0 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✓ Outcome correct
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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Sunderland vs Brighton Hove in the Premier League. Brighton Hove is the favourite with a 43% win probability. Sunderland has a 30% chance of winning and 27% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Sunderland vs Brighton Hove

This is a tactical clash between Sunderland’s low-block counter-attacking style (42.4% possession) and Hürzeler’s possession-heavy Brighton. The referee, Tom Kirk, averages 5.0 cards per game, suggesting a feisty encounter. The breezy, damp conditions at the Stadium of Light typically favor the home side, but Brighton's physical rest may negate the '12th man' effect.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

45%
30%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

The most likely scenario (45%) is a Brighton victory driven by superior squad depth and tactical freshness; their ability to create big chances against a backup keeper is the deciding factor. A Sunderland win (30%) would require Brobbey to exploit Brighton's high defensive line on the break. A draw (25%) is possible if Sunderland successfully parks the bus as they did in the December 0-0. Given Sunderland's recent home slump and the absence of Roefs, a narrow 1-2 away win is the most data-backed outcome.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
Sunderland
Brighton Hove

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.25

Home xG

1.55

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Sunderland Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▼
▼
3/3 Leeds United FC 0-1 Sunderland AFC W 1.05
28/2 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland AFC D 1.12
22/2 Sunderland AFC 1-3 Fulham FC L 1.35
11/2 Sunderland AFC 0-1 Liverpool FC L 1.25
7/2 Arsenal FC 3-0 Sunderland AFC L 0.80

Brighton Hove Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 0 D · 3 L
▼
▼
▼
4/3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Arsenal FC L 1.28
1/3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2-1 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.70
21/2 Brentford FC 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC W 1.63
11/2 Aston Villa FC 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion FC L 1.62
8/2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Crystal Palace FC L 1.67
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Brighton enters with a 10-day rest advantage, while Sunderland is reeling from a demoralizing FA Cup exit against Port Vale.

trending_up 2

Sunderland is missing their elite shot-stopper Robin Roefs (77% save rate); backup Melker Ellborg faces a high-volume Brighton attack.

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The return of Brian Brobbey gives Sunderland a clinical outlet, but Brighton's high progressive passing (Van Hecke) is likely to bypass Sunderland's depleted midfield.

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Injuries & Absentees

Sunderland is severely hampered in defense with Nordi Mukiele and Reinildo out, alongside starting goalkeeper Robin Roefs. While Brian Brobbey and Dennis Cirkin return, the lack of defensive cohesion is critical. Brighton monitors Kaoru Mitoma (ankle), but Lewis Dunk is expected to return to stabilize the backline.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Sunderland vs Brighton Hove?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 30% for Sunderland, 27% draw and 43% for Brighton Hove.

What is the recent form of Sunderland and Brighton Hove?

Sunderland form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Brighton Hove form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Sunderland vs Brighton Hove?

Sunderland is severely hampered in defense with Nordi Mukiele and Reinildo out, alongside starting goalkeeper Robin Roefs. While Brian Brobbey and Dennis Cirkin return, the lack of defensive cohesion is critical. Brighton monitors Kaoru Mitoma (ankle), but Lewis Dunk is expected to return to stabilize the backline.

What are the current standings for Sunderland and Brighton Hove in the Premier League?

Sunderland are 7th in the Premier League with 54 points from 38 games. Brighton Hove are 8th with 53 points from 38 games.

What time does Sunderland vs Brighton Hove kick off?

Sunderland vs Brighton Hove kicks off on Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Sunderland vs Brighton Hove?

The referee for Sunderland vs Brighton Hove in the Premier League is Thomas Kirk.

What are the key factors for Sunderland vs Brighton Hove?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Sunderland vs Brighton Hove: 1. Brighton enters with a 10-day rest advantage, while Sunderland is reeling from a demoralizing FA Cup exit against Port Vale. 2. Sunderland is missing their elite shot-stopper Robin Roefs (77% save rate); backup Melker Ellborg faces a high-volume Brighton attack. 3. The return of Brian Brobbey gives Sunderland a clinical outlet, but Brighton's high progressive passing (Van Hecke) is likely to bypass Sunderland's depleted midfield..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.