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Burnley vs Bournemouth — Premier League Prediction 14 March 2026

Burnley
Burnley
Premier League
1
VS
2
schedule 14 Mar, 15:00 · Referee: Peter Bankes (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Final result
0 – 0
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Burnley vs Bournemouth in the Premier League. Bournemouth is the favourite with a 53% win probability. Burnley has a 23% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Burnley vs Bournemouth

This is a 'must-win' for 19th-placed Burnley, who are 9 points from safety with 9 games left. However, they are winless in 10 home games. Bournemouth is 9th and on a 9-game unbeaten run, though 4 of their last 5 were draws. The weather at Turf Moor is expected to be typical for March (windy/overcast), favoring a physical, high-tempo game which suits Iraola's pressing style.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

55%
30%
15%
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Scenario Explanation

Scenario 1: Bournemouth Win (55% likelihood). Their superior shot creation and Burnley's defensive gaps make an away win the most probable outcome, especially with a regression to the mean expected for Bournemouth's finishing. Scenario 2: Draw (30% likelihood). Bournemouth has developed a 'draw habit' recently, and Burnley's desperation could lead to a gritty defensive stand. Scenario 3: Burnley Win (15% likelihood). Requires a 'Turf Moor miracle' where Burnley converts their few chances while Bournemouth continues to waste theirs.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
···
4 Aston Villa FC 38 19 8 11 +7 65
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
Burnley
Bournemouth

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.10

Home xG

1.70

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Burnley Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▼
▲
▲
▼
3/3 Everton FC 2-0 Burnley FC L 1.05
28/2 Burnley FC 3-4 Brentford FC L 1.12
21/2 Chelsea FC 1-1 Burnley FC D 0.78
11/2 Crystal Palace FC 2-3 Burnley FC W 0.92
7/2 Burnley FC 0-2 West Ham United FC L 1.25

Bournemouth Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 4 D · 0 L
▼
▼
▼
▼
3/3 AFC Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford FC D 1.75
28/2 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland AFC D 1.85
21/2 West Ham United FC 0-0 AFC Bournemouth D 1.74
10/2 Everton FC 1-2 AFC Bournemouth W 1.51
7/2 AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa FC D 1.62
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Key Factors

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Bournemouth's high xG creation (averaging 1.78 in last 3) vs. Burnley's defense conceding 2.0 goals per match.

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Burnley's massive injury list, including top scorer Zian Flemming (doubtful) and key midfield pivot Josh Cullen (out).

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Tactical mismatch: Bournemouth's high-intensity press (Top 3 in high recoveries) vs. Burnley's vulnerability when playing out from the back under Scott Parker.

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Injuries & Absentees

Burnley faces a crisis with 7 players ruled out, including Jordan Beyer, Josh Cullen, and Zeki Amdouni. The potential absence of Zian Flemming (calf) removes their primary goal threat. Bournemouth is missing Lewis Cook and Justin Kluivert, but they have superior depth with Evanilson and Kroupi available to lead the line.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Burnley vs Bournemouth?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 23% for Burnley, 24% draw and 53% for Bournemouth.

What is the recent form of Burnley and Bournemouth?

Burnley form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Bournemouth form (last 5): 1W-4D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Burnley vs Bournemouth?

Burnley faces a crisis with 7 players ruled out, including Jordan Beyer, Josh Cullen, and Zeki Amdouni. The potential absence of Zian Flemming (calf) removes their primary goal threat. Bournemouth is missing Lewis Cook and Justin Kluivert, but they have superior depth with Evanilson and Kroupi available to lead the line.

What are the current standings for Burnley and Bournemouth in the Premier League?

Burnley are 19th in the Premier League with 22 points from 38 games. Bournemouth are 6th with 57 points from 38 games.

What time does Burnley vs Bournemouth kick off?

Burnley vs Bournemouth kicks off on Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Burnley vs Bournemouth?

The referee for Burnley vs Bournemouth in the Premier League is Peter Bankes.

What are the key factors for Burnley vs Bournemouth?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Burnley vs Bournemouth: 1. Bournemouth's high xG creation (averaging 1.78 in last 3) vs. Burnley's defense conceding 2.0 goals per match. 2. Burnley's massive injury list, including top scorer Zian Flemming (doubtful) and key midfield pivot Josh Cullen (out). 3. Tactical mismatch: Bournemouth's high-intensity press (Top 3 in high recoveries) vs. Burnley's vulnerability when playing out from the back under Scott Parker..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.