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Nottingham vs Newcastle — Premier League Prediction 10 May 2026

Nottingham
Nottingham
Premier League
1
VS
2
schedule 10 May, 13:00 · Referee: Paul Tierney (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
Final result
1 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Nottingham vs Newcastle in the Premier League. Nottingham is the favourite with a 42% win probability. Newcastle has a 32% chance of winning and 26% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Nottingham vs Newcastle

This is a Matchweek 36 fixture where both sides are largely safe but motivated by different factors. Forest needs one more point for mathematical safety, while Newcastle is driven by the desire to leapfrog local rivals Sunderland in the table. The tactical battle pits Vitor Pereira's counter-attacking setup against Eddie Howe's high-pressing 4-3-3. Expect a physical game officiated by Paul Tierney in breezy, cool conditions (11°C).

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

45%
35%
20%
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Scenario Explanation

Scenario 1: Newcastle exploits Forest's tired legs and defensive doubts to secure a narrow away win (45% likelihood). Scenario 2: A fatigued Forest focuses on a low block to grind out the draw needed for safety (35% likelihood). Scenario 3: Forest ignores the fatigue and continues their clinical xG overperformance for a home win (20% likelihood).
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
Nottingham
Newcastle

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.58

Home xG

1.52

Away xG

Upset Chance

High

Risk of unexpected result

Nottingham Recent Form — Last 5

4 W · 1 D · 0 L
▲
▲
▲
▲
4/5 Chelsea FC 1-3 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.34
24/4 Sunderland AFC 0-5 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.34
19/4 Nottingham Forest FC 4-1 Burnley FC W 1.78
12/4 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Aston Villa FC D 1.35
22/3 Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-3 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.42

Newcastle Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 0 D · 4 L
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▼
▼
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▼
2/5 Newcastle United FC 3-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC W 1.52
25/4 Arsenal FC 1-0 Newcastle United FC L 1.18
18/4 Newcastle United FC 1-2 AFC Bournemouth L 1.68
12/4 Crystal Palace FC 2-1 Newcastle United FC L 1.55
22/3 Newcastle United FC 1-2 Sunderland AFC L 1.80
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Europa League Fatigue: Forest enters this match just 72 hours after a demoralizing 4-0 loss to Aston Villa in a European semi-final, while Newcastle has had a full week of recovery.

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The 'City Ground' Hex: Newcastle has won their last 4 consecutive Premier League visits to Nottingham, and Forest has not beaten the Magpies at home in their last 7 top-flight attempts.

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Gibbs-White Uncertainty: Forest's April Player of the Month and primary playmaker Morgan Gibbs-White is a major doubt (head/face injury), potentially stripping Forest of their creative core.

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Injuries & Absentees

Forest is severely depleted; beyond the doubt surrounding Gibbs-White, they are missing Hudson-Odoi, Willy Boly, and potentially Murillo. Newcastle is missing Lewis Miley (season-over) and Fabian Schär, but welcomes back Kieran Trippier, providing a massive boost in leadership and set-piece delivery.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Nottingham vs Newcastle?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 42% for Nottingham, 26% draw and 32% for Newcastle.

What is the recent form of Nottingham and Newcastle?

Nottingham form (last 5): 4W-1D-0L. Newcastle form (last 5): 1W-0D-4L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Nottingham vs Newcastle?

Forest is severely depleted; beyond the doubt surrounding Gibbs-White, they are missing Hudson-Odoi, Willy Boly, and potentially Murillo. Newcastle is missing Lewis Miley (season-over) and Fabian Schär, but welcomes back Kieran Trippier, providing a massive boost in leadership and set-piece delivery.

What are the current standings for Nottingham and Newcastle in the Premier League?

Nottingham are 16th in the Premier League with 44 points from 38 games. Newcastle are 12th with 49 points from 38 games.

What time does Nottingham vs Newcastle kick off?

Nottingham vs Newcastle kicks off on Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Nottingham vs Newcastle?

The referee for Nottingham vs Newcastle in the Premier League is Paul Tierney.

What are the key factors for Nottingham vs Newcastle?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Nottingham vs Newcastle: 1. Europa League Fatigue: Forest enters this match just 72 hours after a demoralizing 4-0 loss to Aston Villa in a European semi-final, while Newcastle has had a full week of recovery. 2. The 'City Ground' Hex: Newcastle has won their last 4 consecutive Premier League visits to Nottingham, and Forest has not beaten the Magpies at home in their last 7 top-flight attempts. 3. Gibbs-White Uncertainty: Forest's April Player of the Month and primary playmaker Morgan Gibbs-White is a major doubt (head/face injury), potentially stripping Forest of their creative core..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.