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Burnley vs Aston Villa — Premier League Prediction 10 May 2026

Burnley
Burnley
Premier League
0
VS
2
schedule 10 May, 13:00 · Referee: Anthony Taylor (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Final result
2 – 2
CoachAI prediction
0 – 2
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 0-2 for Burnley vs Aston Villa in the Premier League. Aston Villa is the favourite with a 60% win probability. Burnley has a 18% chance of winning and 22% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Burnley vs Aston Villa

Played at Turf Moor on Matchday 36. The atmosphere is likely to be subdued given Burnley's confirmed relegation. Weather is expected to be typical for Lancashire in May—overcast and cool (12°C)—which usually favors a physical scrap, but Villa's superior technical depth and the high stakes of their European pursuit outweigh the home advantage. Referee Anthony Taylor is officiating, known for being strict, which could penalize a desperate Burnley defense.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

65%
25%
10%
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Scenario Explanation

1 goal in 4 of their last 5) suggests they will struggle to penetrate Villa's organized lines. A second scenario (25% probability) is a low-scoring draw if Villa suffers from 'European fatigue' following their midweek semi-final. A Burnley victory (10% probability) is considered highly unlikely given they have lost 25 of their last 40 competitive fixtures and lack the clinical edge to punish Villa's high defensive line.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
···
2 Manchester City FC 38 23 9 6 +42 78
3 Manchester United FC 38 20 11 7 +19 71
4 Aston Villa FC 38 19 8 11 +7 65
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
Burnley
Aston Villa

Projected xG by CoachAI

0.85

Home xG

1.85

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Burnley Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 5 L
▼
▼
1/5 Leeds United FC 3-1 Burnley FC L 0.92
22/4 Burnley FC 0-1 Manchester City FC L 0.74
19/4 Nottingham Forest FC 4-1 Burnley FC L 0.94
11/4 Burnley FC 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC L 1.05
21/3 Fulham FC 3-1 Burnley FC L 0.92

Aston Villa Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 1 D · 2 L
▼
▼
▲
▼
3/5 Aston Villa FC 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur FC L 1.62
25/4 Fulham FC 1-0 Aston Villa FC L 1.62
19/4 Aston Villa FC 4-3 Sunderland AFC W 1.64
12/4 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Aston Villa FC D 1.52
22/3 Aston Villa FC 2-0 West Ham United FC W 1.72
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Key Factors

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Asymmetric Motivation: Burnley is mathematically relegated (19th), while Aston Villa is in a fierce battle for a Top 4/5 Champions League spot, currently level with 4th on points but behind on Goal Difference.

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Tactical Mismatch: Villa's high-pressing system ranks top 3 for turnovers leading to shots, which directly exploits Burnley's league-worst defense (71 goals conceded) and their struggle to build out from the back without captain Josh Cullen.

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Efficiency Gap: Burnley has a 5-match losing streak with an average xG of just 0.89, while Villa generates significantly higher volume (1.6+ xG) and enters with massive momentum after qualifying for the Europa League final.

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Injuries & Absentees

Burnley is severely weakened by the absence of captain Josh Cullen (ACL - out until late 2026) and defender Jordan Beyer. Aston Villa is missing Amadou Onana (Calf) and Boubacar Kamara (Knee), but receives a major boost with the return of captain John McGinn, who is essential for their midfield transition and high-press intensity.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Burnley vs Aston Villa?

Coach AI predicts a score of 0-2 with a win probability of 18% for Burnley, 22% draw and 60% for Aston Villa.

What is the recent form of Burnley and Aston Villa?

Burnley form (last 5): 0W-0D-5L. Aston Villa form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Burnley vs Aston Villa?

Burnley is severely weakened by the absence of captain Josh Cullen (ACL - out until late 2026) and defender Jordan Beyer. Aston Villa is missing Amadou Onana (Calf) and Boubacar Kamara (Knee), but receives a major boost with the return of captain John McGinn, who is essential for their midfield transition and high-press intensity.

What are the current standings for Burnley and Aston Villa in the Premier League?

Burnley are 19th in the Premier League with 22 points from 38 games. Aston Villa are 4th with 65 points from 38 games.

What time does Burnley vs Aston Villa kick off?

Burnley vs Aston Villa kicks off on Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Burnley vs Aston Villa?

The referee for Burnley vs Aston Villa in the Premier League is Anthony Taylor.

What are the key factors for Burnley vs Aston Villa?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Burnley vs Aston Villa: 1. Asymmetric Motivation: Burnley is mathematically relegated (19th), while Aston Villa is in a fierce battle for a Top 4/5 Champions League spot, currently level with 4th on points but behind on Goal Difference. 2. Tactical Mismatch: Villa's high-pressing system ranks top 3 for turnovers leading to shots, which directly exploits Burnley's league-worst defense (71 goals conceded) and their struggle to build out from the back without captain Josh Cullen. 3. Efficiency Gap: Burnley has a 5-match losing streak with an average xG of just 0.89, while Villa generates significantly higher volume (1.6+ xG) and enters with massive momentum after qualifying for the Europa League final..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.