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Nottingham vs Burnley — Premier League Prediction 19 April 2026

Nottingham
Nottingham
Premier League
2
VS
0
schedule 19 Apr, 13:00 · Referee: Thomas Kirk (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Burnley
Burnley
Final result
4 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 0
✓ Outcome correct
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 for Nottingham vs Burnley in the Premier League. Nottingham is the favourite with a 62% win probability. Burnley has a 14% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Nottingham vs Burnley

This is a 'survival six-pointer' for Forest but a 'final stand' for Burnley. A win for Forest at the City Ground essentially secures their Premier League status and mathematically pushes Burnley toward the Championship. While Forest may face some fatigue after their Thursday night victory over Porto, the atmospheric advantage and Burnley's lack of confidence create a lopsided psychological dynamic.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
25%
15%
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Scenario Explanation

1) against a desperate, depleted Burnley side. There is a secondary scenario (25% likelihood) where European fatigue leads to a sluggish 0-0 or 1-1 draw if Forest prioritizes a clean sheet. A Burnley win is highly improbable (15% likelihood) given they have the league's worst defense and are missing their most creative outlets. Expect Forest to capitalize on Burnley’s defensive gaps in the second half.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
Nottingham
Burnley

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.78

Home xG

0.94

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Nottingham Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 3 D · 1 L
▲
▼
▲
12/4 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Aston Villa FC D 1.35
22/3 Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-3 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.42
15/3 Nottingham Forest FC 0-0 Fulham FC D 1.22
4/3 Manchester City FC 2-2 Nottingham Forest FC D 0.82
1/3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2-1 Nottingham Forest FC L 1.10

Burnley Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 1 D · 4 L
▼
▼
▼
▲
11/4 Burnley FC 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC L 1.05
21/3 Fulham FC 3-1 Burnley FC L 0.92
14/3 Burnley FC 0-0 AFC Bournemouth D 1.10
3/3 Everton FC 2-0 Burnley FC L 1.05
28/2 Burnley FC 3-4 Brentford FC L 1.12
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Nottingham Forest enters the match with high morale after reaching the Europa League semi-finals, while Burnley is winless in their last six league games.

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Burnley is suffering from a massive injury crisis, missing the core of their team including Josh Cullen and Zeki Amdouni (both ACL), making them defensively vulnerable (63 goals conceded this season).

person 3

Statistical Divergence: Forest has shown elite efficiency against top-tier opponents (e.g., 3 goals from 1.42 xG vs Spurs), whereas Burnley consistently underperforms their attacking xG (0 goals from 1.10 xG vs Bournemouth).

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Injuries & Absentees

Burnley is severely handicapped with a 'triple-threat' of absences in the spine: Josh Cullen and Zeki Amdouni are out long-term (ACL), and Jordan Beyer (hamstring) leaves the defense exposed. Forest is missing Willy Boly and Nicolò Savona, but their squad depth is superior, especially following recent rotations in their successful European campaign.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Nottingham vs Burnley?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 with a win probability of 62% for Nottingham, 24% draw and 14% for Burnley.

What is the recent form of Nottingham and Burnley?

Nottingham form (last 5): 1W-3D-1L. Burnley form (last 5): 0W-1D-4L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Nottingham vs Burnley?

Burnley is severely handicapped with a 'triple-threat' of absences in the spine: Josh Cullen and Zeki Amdouni are out long-term (ACL), and Jordan Beyer (hamstring) leaves the defense exposed. Forest is missing Willy Boly and Nicolò Savona, but their squad depth is superior, especially following recent rotations in their successful European campaign.

What are the current standings for Nottingham and Burnley in the Premier League?

Nottingham are 16th in the Premier League with 44 points from 38 games. Burnley are 19th with 22 points from 38 games.

What time does Nottingham vs Burnley kick off?

Nottingham vs Burnley kicks off on Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Nottingham vs Burnley?

The referee for Nottingham vs Burnley in the Premier League is Thomas Kirk.

What are the key factors for Nottingham vs Burnley?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Nottingham vs Burnley: 1. Nottingham Forest enters the match with high morale after reaching the Europa League semi-finals, while Burnley is winless in their last six league games. 2. Burnley is suffering from a massive injury crisis, missing the core of their team including Josh Cullen and Zeki Amdouni (both ACL), making them defensively vulnerable (63 goals conceded this season). 3. Statistical Divergence: Forest has shown elite efficiency against top-tier opponents (e.g., 3 goals from 1.42 xG vs Spurs), whereas Burnley consistently underperforms their attacking xG (0 goals from 1.10 xG vs Bournemouth)..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.