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Liverpool vs Chelsea — Premier League Prediction 9 May 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
Premier League
2
VS
0
schedule 09 May, 11:30 · Referee: Craig Pawson (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
Final result
1 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 0
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 for Liverpool vs Chelsea in the Premier League. Liverpool is the favourite with a 54% win probability. Chelsea has a 22% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Liverpool vs Chelsea

This is a 'must-win' for Liverpool to secure 4th place. Anfield has been a fortress (only one loss in the last seven home games), while Chelsea's psychological state is fragile under interim management. Referee Craig Pawson is historically lenient (averaging only 2.6 cards per game), which favors a high-intensity Liverpool press that avoids frequent bookings. Weather is expected to be cool (15°C) with light showers, traditional conditions that suit Liverpool’s fast-paced transition play.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

65%
25%
10%
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Scenario Explanation

Scenario 1: Liverpool exploits Chelsea's defensive fragility and poor goalkeeping. Chelsea’s inability to convert high xG into actual goals suggests a continuation of their 'toothless' form (65% likelihood). Scenario 2: A low-scoring, cagey affair where Liverpool's missing superstars (Salah/Isak) result in a lack of clinical finishing, potentially leading to a 0-0 or narrow 1-0 (25% likelihood). Scenario 3: Chelsea experiences a 'dead-cat bounce' under McFarlane, catching a rotated Liverpool side on the break (10% likelihood). Final Verdict: Liverpool’s home strength and superior tactical discipline against a sinking Chelsea side make a 2-0 win the most probable outcome.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
3 Manchester United FC 38 20 11 7 +19 71
4 Aston Villa FC 38 19 8 11 +7 65
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
Liverpool
Chelsea

Projected xG by CoachAI

2.15

Home xG

1.70

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Liverpool Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 0 D · 2 L
▲
▼
3/5 Manchester United FC 3-2 Liverpool FC L 1.88
25/4 Liverpool FC 3-1 Crystal Palace FC W 2.08
19/4 Everton FC 1-2 Liverpool FC W 1.68
14/4 Liverpool FC 0-2 Paris Saint-Germain FC L 2.05
11/4 Liverpool FC 2-0 Fulham FC W 2.10

Chelsea Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 5 L
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▼
▼
▼
▼
4/5 Chelsea FC 1-3 Nottingham Forest FC L 1.87
21/4 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3-0 Chelsea FC L 1.90
18/4 Chelsea FC 0-1 Manchester United FC L 1.88
12/4 Chelsea FC 0-3 Manchester City FC L 1.92
21/3 Everton FC 3-0 Chelsea FC L 1.55
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Chelsea is experiencing a historic collapse, having lost 6 consecutive Premier League matches and scoring only 1 goal in that period despite maintaining an average xG of 1.82.

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Liverpool remains highly motivated at Anfield, needing a win to mathematically secure a return to the Champions League for the 2026-27 season.

person 3

Major injury crisis for both sides: Liverpool is missing Salah and potentially Isak, while Chelsea is without their first-choice goalkeeper Sanchez and several key wingers.

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Injuries & Absentees

Liverpool faces a significant creative void with Mohamed Salah (thigh) and Alexander Isak (groin) sidelined; Arne Slot is likely to rely on Gakpo and the young Ngumoha. Chelsea’s situation is worse: with Robert Sanchez out, the mistake-prone Filip Jorgensen starts in goal. Furthermore, the absence of Estevão and Mykhailo Mudryk (suspension) leaves interim coach Calum McFarlane with almost no natural width.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 with a win probability of 54% for Liverpool, 24% draw and 22% for Chelsea.

What is the recent form of Liverpool and Chelsea?

Liverpool form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L. Chelsea form (last 5): 0W-0D-5L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Liverpool faces a significant creative void with Mohamed Salah (thigh) and Alexander Isak (groin) sidelined; Arne Slot is likely to rely on Gakpo and the young Ngumoha. Chelsea’s situation is worse: with Robert Sanchez out, the mistake-prone Filip Jorgensen starts in goal. Furthermore, the absence of Estevão and Mykhailo Mudryk (suspension) leaves interim coach Calum McFarlane with almost no natural width.

What are the current standings for Liverpool and Chelsea in the Premier League?

Liverpool are 5th in the Premier League with 60 points from 38 games. Chelsea are 10th with 52 points from 38 games.

What time does Liverpool vs Chelsea kick off?

Liverpool vs Chelsea kicks off on Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 13:30 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

The referee for Liverpool vs Chelsea in the Premier League is Craig Pawson.

What are the key factors for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Liverpool vs Chelsea: 1. Chelsea is experiencing a historic collapse, having lost 6 consecutive Premier League matches and scoring only 1 goal in that period despite maintaining an average xG of 1.82. 2. Liverpool remains highly motivated at Anfield, needing a win to mathematically secure a return to the Champions League for the 2026-27 season. 3. Major injury crisis for both sides: Liverpool is missing Salah and potentially Isak, while Chelsea is without their first-choice goalkeeper Sanchez and several key wingers..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.