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Liverpool vs Burnley — Premier League Prediction 17 January 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
Premier League
2
VS
0
schedule 17 Jan, 15:00 · Referee: Andy Madley (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Burnley
Burnley
Final result
1 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 0
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 for Liverpool vs Burnley in the Premier League. Liverpool is the favourite with a 78% win probability. Burnley has a 7% chance of winning and 15% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Liverpool vs Burnley

This Matchday 22 fixture sees 4th-placed Liverpool (35 points) hosting 19th-placed Burnley (12 points). Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 games across all competitions but have struggled to convert dominance into wins recently, drawing their last three league matches. Burnley are desperate for points to escape the relegation zone, trailing safety by eight points, but they arrive at Anfield without a league win since October 2025.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

33%
34%
33%
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Scenario Explanation

Despite Liverpool's recent scoring plateau and the absence of Salah, the disparity in quality and Burnley's defensive injury crisis make a home win highly probable. Liverpool’s defense, anchored by Virgil van Dijk and a returning Alisson, remains robust, having kept a clean sheet against Arsenal last week. While Burnley's low block may frustrate the Reds for periods, the creative presence of Florian Wirtz and the clinical return of Hugo Ekitiké should be enough to secure a comfortable, control-oriented victory at Anfield.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
3 Manchester United FC 38 20 11 7 +19 71
4 Aston Villa FC 38 19 8 11 +7 65
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
···
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
Liverpool
Burnley

Projected xG by CoachAI

2.15

Home xG

0.85

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Liverpool Recent Form — Last 5

Burnley Recent Form — Last 5

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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Mohamed Salah's absence due to AFCON third-place playoff participation.

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Liverpool's recent 'draw-heavy' form in the league (3 consecutive PL draws) against low-block teams.

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Burnley's 12-match winless run in the Premier League and poor away record (1 point from last 5 away).

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Burnley's extensive injury list, including top scorer Zian Flemming and key midfielder Josh Cullen.

insights 5

The return of Liverpool's Hugo Ekitiké and Florian Wirtz to provide creative spark at Anfield.

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Injuries & Absentees

Liverpool are missing Mohamed Salah (AFCON), Conor Bradley (knee), Alexander Isak (leg), Giovanni Leoni (knee), and Wataru Endo (ankle). Burnley are without Zian Flemming, Zeki Amdouni, Josh Cullen, Jordan Beyer, and Connor Roberts, while Lyle Foster is a doubt due to illness.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Liverpool vs Burnley?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 with a win probability of 78% for Liverpool, 15% draw and 7% for Burnley.

What is the recent form of Liverpool and Burnley?

Liverpool form (last 5): no data. Burnley form (last 5): no data.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Liverpool vs Burnley?

Liverpool are missing Mohamed Salah (AFCON), Conor Bradley (knee), Alexander Isak (leg), Giovanni Leoni (knee), and Wataru Endo (ankle). Burnley are without Zian Flemming, Zeki Amdouni, Josh Cullen, Jordan Beyer, and Connor Roberts, while Lyle Foster is a doubt due to illness.

What are the current standings for Liverpool and Burnley in the Premier League?

Liverpool are 5th in the Premier League with 60 points from 38 games. Burnley are 19th with 22 points from 38 games.

What time does Liverpool vs Burnley kick off?

Liverpool vs Burnley kicks off on Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Liverpool vs Burnley?

The referee for Liverpool vs Burnley in the Premier League is Andy Madley.

What are the key factors for Liverpool vs Burnley?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Liverpool vs Burnley: 1. Mohamed Salah's absence due to AFCON third-place playoff participation. 2. Liverpool's recent 'draw-heavy' form in the league (3 consecutive PL draws) against low-block teams. 3. Burnley's 12-match winless run in the Premier League and poor away record (1 point from last 5 away). 4. Burnley's extensive injury list, including top scorer Zian Flemming and key midfielder Josh Cullen. 5. The return of Liverpool's Hugo Ekitiké and Florian Wirtz to provide creative spark at Anfield..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.