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Everton vs Burnley — Premier League Prediction 3 March 2026

Everton
Everton
Premier League
2
VS
1
schedule 03 Mar, 19:30 · Referee: Tim Robinson (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Burnley
Burnley
Final result
2 – 0
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✓ Outcome correct
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Everton vs Burnley in the Premier League. Everton is the favourite with a 60% win probability. Burnley has a 16% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Everton vs Burnley

This is a clash of extremes: Everton's push for Europe against Burnley's desperate survival fight. Weather reports indicate breezy conditions with showers at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, which favors Everton’s physical, direct style over Burnley’s attempts at technical possession. Referee Tim Robinson is officiating, known for being relatively lenient, which may allow Everton's aggressive press to disrupt Burnley's buildup.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
25%
15%
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Scenario Explanation

The most likely scenario is an Everton victory (60% likelihood) driven by set-piece dominance and Burnley's inability to manage transitions. Burnley has shown resilience lately (scoring 3 against Brentford and drawing at Chelsea), making a 'Both Teams to Score' scenario highly probable (25% likelihood for a high-scoring draw). A Burnley upset (15% likelihood) would require a complete defensive collapse from Everton, which is unlikely given Pickford's recent form. Final Verdict: Everton's physical advantage and Burnley's depleted defense point to a narrow but decisive home win.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
Everton
Burnley

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.48

Home xG

1.05

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Everton Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 1 D · 2 L
▲
▼
▲
28/2 Newcastle United FC 2-3 Everton FC W 1.12
23/2 Everton FC 0-1 Manchester United FC L 1.23
10/2 Everton FC 1-2 AFC Bournemouth L 1.35
7/2 Fulham FC 1-2 Everton FC W 1.16
31/1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-1 Everton FC D 1.15

Burnley Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▲
▲
▼
▼
28/2 Burnley FC 3-4 Brentford FC L 1.12
21/2 Chelsea FC 1-1 Burnley FC D 0.78
11/2 Crystal Palace FC 2-3 Burnley FC W 0.92
7/2 Burnley FC 0-2 West Ham United FC L 1.25
2/2 Sunderland AFC 3-0 Burnley FC L 1.15
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Set-piece Superiority: Burnley has conceded the 4th most set-piece goals in the league, while Everton's center-backs (Branthwaite/Tarkowski) are highly efficient in the air.

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Defensive Fragility: Burnley concedes an average of 2.00 goals per game and has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 14 away league matches.

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Home Motivation vs. Away Woes: Everton is winless in 7 at their new stadium; facing the 19th-placed team with a 64% away loss rate is their best opportunity to break the cycle.

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Injuries & Absentees

Everton is missing creativity with Jack Grealish (season-long) and Carlos Alcaraz out, meaning responsibility falls on Dewsbury-Hall and Ndiaye. Burnley's injury crisis is severe, missing 7+ first-team players including key defenders Beyer and Tuanzebe, and midfield anchor Josh Cullen. This significantly weakens Burnley’s ability to defend deep or control the tempo.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Everton vs Burnley?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 60% for Everton, 24% draw and 16% for Burnley.

What is the recent form of Everton and Burnley?

Everton form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L. Burnley form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Everton vs Burnley?

Everton is missing creativity with Jack Grealish (season-long) and Carlos Alcaraz out, meaning responsibility falls on Dewsbury-Hall and Ndiaye. Burnley's injury crisis is severe, missing 7+ first-team players including key defenders Beyer and Tuanzebe, and midfield anchor Josh Cullen. This significantly weakens Burnley’s ability to defend deep or control the tempo.

What are the current standings for Everton and Burnley in the Premier League?

Everton are 13th in the Premier League with 49 points from 38 games. Burnley are 19th with 22 points from 38 games.

What time does Everton vs Burnley kick off?

Everton vs Burnley kicks off on Tuesday, 3 March 2026 at 20:30 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Everton vs Burnley?

The referee for Everton vs Burnley in the Premier League is Tim Robinson.

What are the key factors for Everton vs Burnley?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Everton vs Burnley: 1. Set-piece Superiority: Burnley has conceded the 4th most set-piece goals in the league, while Everton's center-backs (Branthwaite/Tarkowski) are highly efficient in the air. 2. Defensive Fragility: Burnley concedes an average of 2.00 goals per game and has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 14 away league matches. 3. Home Motivation vs. Away Woes: Everton is winless in 7 at their new stadium; facing the 19th-placed team with a 64% away loss rate is their best opportunity to break the cycle..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.