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Chelsea vs Nottingham — Premier League Prediction 4 May 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
Premier League
1
VS
2
schedule 04 May, 14:00 · Referee: Anthony Taylor (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Nottingham
Nottingham
Final result
1 – 3
CoachAI prediction
1 – 2
✓ Outcome correct
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 for Chelsea vs Nottingham in the Premier League. Chelsea is the favourite with a 42% win probability. Nottingham has a 32% chance of winning and 26% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Chelsea vs Nottingham

This is a high-stakes encounter for Forest, who need points to mathematically secure Premier League safety (3 points above the drop). For Chelsea, the focus has shifted to the FA Cup final under interim manager Calum McFarlane. The atmosphere at Stamford Bridge has been toxic during a 5-game league losing streak, which benefits the high-momentum visitors.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

45%
30%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

1 draw (30% likelihood) if McFarlane's interim tactics provide defensive stability. Scenario 3: A narrow Chelsea win (25% likelihood) if Cole Palmer's return to the starting XI finally fixes their conversion issues.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
Chelsea
Nottingham

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.87

Home xG

1.34

Away xG

Upset Chance

Very High

Risk of unexpected result

Chelsea Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 5 L
▼
▼
▼
▼
▼
21/4 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 3-0 Chelsea FC L 1.90
18/4 Chelsea FC 0-1 Manchester United FC L 1.88
12/4 Chelsea FC 0-3 Manchester City FC L 1.92
21/3 Everton FC 3-0 Chelsea FC L 1.55
17/3 Chelsea FC 0-3 Paris Saint-Germain FC L 2.15

Nottingham Recent Form — Last 5

3 W · 2 D · 0 L
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▲
▲
▼
24/4 Sunderland AFC 0-5 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.34
19/4 Nottingham Forest FC 4-1 Burnley FC W 1.78
12/4 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Aston Villa FC D 1.35
22/3 Tottenham Hotspur FC 0-3 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.42
15/3 Nottingham Forest FC 0-0 Fulham FC D 1.22
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Chelsea is experiencing a historic finishing crisis, underperforming their xG by -8.4 in 2026 despite creating high-quality chances (avg 1.88 xG).

trending_up 2

Nottingham Forest is in peak form (unbeaten in 6) and highly clinical on transitions, led by Morgan Gibbs-White who has 12 goal involvements in 2026 alone.

person 3

Tactical mismatch on set-pieces: Forest is one of the league's most effective teams from corners, while Chelsea has conceded the second-most goals (11) from set-plays this season.

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Injuries & Absentees

Chelsea is without Estevao Willian (hamstring) and the suspended Mykhailo Mudryk. Although Reece James and Levi Colwill return to the squad, they are unlikely to start. Forest misses Callum Hudson-Odoi, but their main concern is fatigue and minor knocks to Murillo and Sangare following their Europa League semi-final victory on Thursday.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Chelsea vs Nottingham?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-2 with a win probability of 42% for Chelsea, 26% draw and 32% for Nottingham.

What is the recent form of Chelsea and Nottingham?

Chelsea form (last 5): 0W-0D-5L. Nottingham form (last 5): 3W-2D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Chelsea vs Nottingham?

Chelsea is without Estevao Willian (hamstring) and the suspended Mykhailo Mudryk. Although Reece James and Levi Colwill return to the squad, they are unlikely to start. Forest misses Callum Hudson-Odoi, but their main concern is fatigue and minor knocks to Murillo and Sangare following their Europa League semi-final victory on Thursday.

What are the current standings for Chelsea and Nottingham in the Premier League?

Chelsea are 10th in the Premier League with 52 points from 38 games. Nottingham are 16th with 44 points from 38 games.

What time does Chelsea vs Nottingham kick off?

Chelsea vs Nottingham kicks off on Monday, 4 May 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Chelsea vs Nottingham?

The referee for Chelsea vs Nottingham in the Premier League is Anthony Taylor.

What are the key factors for Chelsea vs Nottingham?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Chelsea vs Nottingham: 1. Chelsea is experiencing a historic finishing crisis, underperforming their xG by -8.4 in 2026 despite creating high-quality chances (avg 1.88 xG). 2. Nottingham Forest is in peak form (unbeaten in 6) and highly clinical on transitions, led by Morgan Gibbs-White who has 12 goal involvements in 2026 alone. 3. Tactical mismatch on set-pieces: Forest is one of the league's most effective teams from corners, while Chelsea has conceded the second-most goals (11) from set-plays this season..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.