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Bournemouth vs Liverpool — Premier League Prediction 24 January 2026

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Premier League
1
VS
3
schedule 24 Jan, 17:30 · Referee: Michael Salisbury (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
Final result
3 – 2
CoachAI prediction
1 – 3
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-3 for Bournemouth vs Liverpool in the Premier League. Liverpool is the favourite with a 51% win probability. Bournemouth has a 25% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Liverpool enters this fixture desperate to break a 'draw syndrome' in the league, bolstered by a 3-0 Champions League win that suggests a tactical breakthrough under Arne Slot. The weather at the Vitality is expected to be wet and cold (8°C, moderate rain), conditions that favor Liverpool's superior technical ball retention. Referee Michael Salisbury is a significant factor, averaging a league-high 4.9 yellow cards per game, which may hinder Bournemouth's physical pressing style.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

62%
23%
15%
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Scenario Explanation

The 'Narrative' centers on Liverpool finally converting their dominance into a scoreline. While the Cherries have been competitive against big sides recently, the loss of Tavernier and Kluivert removes their ability to sustain pressure. I expect Hugo Ekitike and Salah to exploit the spaces left by Bournemouth's aggressive high block. The 'Value Tip' lies in the Card Market; with Salisbury officiating and Bournemouth’s frustration growing, Over 4.5 match cards is statistically undervalued. Probability: Away Win 62%, Draw 23%, Home Win 15%.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
3 Manchester United FC 38 20 11 7 +19 71
4 Aston Villa FC 38 19 8 11 +7 65
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
Bournemouth
Liverpool

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.35

Home xG

1.95

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Bournemouth Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
▼
19/1 1-1 Draw vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1.62
7/1 3-2 Win vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC
3/1 2-3 Loss vs. Arsenal FC
30/12 2-2 Draw vs. Chelsea FC
27/12 1-4 Loss vs. Brentford FC

Liverpool Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
▲
▼
21/1 3-0 Win vs. Olympique de Marseille 1.82
17/1 1-1 Draw vs. Burnley FC 2.15
8/1 0-0 Draw vs. Arsenal FC
4/1 2-2 Draw vs. Fulham FC
1/1 0-0 Draw vs. Leeds United FC
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Salah's Return & Clinical Efficiency: Mohamed Salah's return from AFCON duty and his immediate impact in the midweek 3-0 win over Marseille provides the clinical edge Liverpool lacked during their streak of four consecutive Premier League draws where they underperformed their xG by a cumulative 4.2.

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Bournemouth Injury Crisis: Andoni Iraola's squad is significantly depleted in creative areas, missing Marcus Tavernier, Justin Kluivert, and David Brooks. This removes the transition threat necessary to punish Liverpool's high line, especially with former Bournemouth fullback Milos Kerkez now starting for the visitors.

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Pressing vs. Resistance: Bournemouth maintains an aggressive high press (PPDA below 10.0 in 80% of matches), but Liverpool’s midfield trio of Gravenberch, Jones, and Florian Wirtz leads the league in press-resistance metrics, likely resulting in Bournemouth's press being bypassed for high-quality counters.

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Injuries & Absentees

Liverpool is without British record signing Alexander Isak (broken leg) and defender Ibrahima Konate (compassionate leave), forcing Joe Gomez into the XI. However, Bournemouth faces a catastrophic availability crisis with Tavernier (hamstring), Kluivert (knee), Tyler Adams (knee), and David Brooks (ankle) all ruled out, stripping them of nearly 60% of their expected season goal contributions.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-3 with a win probability of 25% for Bournemouth, 24% draw and 51% for Liverpool.

What is the recent form of Bournemouth and Liverpool?

Bournemouth form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L. Liverpool form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

Liverpool is without British record signing Alexander Isak (broken leg) and defender Ibrahima Konate (compassionate leave), forcing Joe Gomez into the XI. However, Bournemouth faces a catastrophic availability crisis with Tavernier (hamstring), Kluivert (knee), Tyler Adams (knee), and David Brooks (ankle) all ruled out, stripping them of nearly 60% of their expected season goal contributions.

What are the current standings for Bournemouth and Liverpool in the Premier League?

Bournemouth are 6th in the Premier League with 57 points from 38 games. Liverpool are 5th with 60 points from 38 games.

What time does Bournemouth vs Liverpool kick off?

Bournemouth vs Liverpool kicks off on Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 18:30 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

The referee for Bournemouth vs Liverpool in the Premier League is Michael Salisbury.

What are the key factors for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Bournemouth vs Liverpool: 1. Salah's Return & Clinical Efficiency: Mohamed Salah's return from AFCON duty and his immediate impact in the midweek 3-0 win over Marseille provides the clinical edge Liverpool lacked during their streak of four consecutive Premier League draws where they underperformed their xG by a cumulative 4.2. 2. Bournemouth Injury Crisis: Andoni Iraola's squad is significantly depleted in creative areas, missing Marcus Tavernier, Justin Kluivert, and David Brooks. This removes the transition threat necessary to punish Liverpool's high line, especially with former Bournemouth fullback Milos Kerkez now starting for the visitors. 3. Pressing vs. Resistance: Bournemouth maintains an aggressive high press (PPDA below 10.0 in 80% of matches), but Liverpool’s midfield trio of Gravenberch, Jones, and Florian Wirtz leads the league in press-resistance metrics, likely resulting in Bournemouth's press being bypassed for high-quality counters..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.