Projected xG by CoachAI
Home xG
Away xG
Upset Chance
Risk of unexpected result
Tottenham Recent Form — Last 5
Leeds United Recent Form — Last 5
Key Factors
Survival Motivation: Tottenham is fighting for Premier League survival, whereas Leeds is mathematically almost safe with 43 points.
Injury Crisis: Spurs are missing nearly an entire starting XI worth of talent (Vicario, Romero, Solanke, Kudus, Kulusevski), forcing reliance on youngsters like Kinsky and Tel.
De Zerbi Effect: Tottenham has shown drastic tactical improvement in high-pressing metrics (5.3 final third recoveries per match) since De Zerbi took over.
Referee Trend: Jarred Gillett is officiating; Leeds has a 0% win rate in 5 games under him this season, while Spurs have won 50% of their matches with him.
Injuries & Absentees
Tottenham's squad is severely depleted. The absence of Cristian Romero and Guglielmo Vicario leaves a massive void in defensive leadership, forcing Kinsky (GK) and Danso into high-pressure roles. Leeds is missing in-form striker Noah Okafor (calf), which significantly blunts their clinical edge despite Dominic Calvert-Lewin's presence.
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Start your free league →Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction
What is the Coach AI prediction for Tottenham vs Leeds United?
Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 42% for Tottenham, 26% draw and 32% for Leeds United.
What is the recent form of Tottenham and Leeds United?
Tottenham form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L. Leeds United form (last 5): 3W-2D-0L.
What are the injury and suspension updates for Tottenham vs Leeds United?
Tottenham's squad is severely depleted. The absence of Cristian Romero and Guglielmo Vicario leaves a massive void in defensive leadership, forcing Kinsky (GK) and Danso into high-pressure roles. Leeds is missing in-form striker Noah Okafor (calf), which significantly blunts their clinical edge despite Dominic Calvert-Lewin's presence.
What is the most likely correct score for Tottenham vs Leeds United?
According to the score probability matrix, 2-1 is the most likely scoreline (15%), followed by 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%).
What are the current standings for Tottenham and Leeds United in the Premier League?
Tottenham are 17th in the Premier League with 41 points from 38 games. Leeds United are 14th with 47 points from 38 games.
What time does Tottenham vs Leeds United kick off?
Tottenham vs Leeds United kicks off on Monday, 11 May 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.
Who is the referee for Tottenham vs Leeds United?
The referee for Tottenham vs Leeds United in the Premier League is Jarred Gillett.
What are the key factors for Tottenham vs Leeds United?
Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Tottenham vs Leeds United: 1. Survival Motivation: Tottenham is fighting for Premier League survival, whereas Leeds is mathematically almost safe with 43 points. 2. Injury Crisis: Spurs are missing nearly an entire starting XI worth of talent (Vicario, Romero, Solanke, Kudus, Kulusevski), forcing reliance on youngsters like Kinsky and Tel. 3. De Zerbi Effect: Tottenham has shown drastic tactical improvement in high-pressing metrics (5.3 final third recoveries per match) since De Zerbi took over. 4. Referee Trend: Jarred Gillett is officiating; Leeds has a 0% win rate in 5 games under him this season, while Spurs have won 50% of their matches with him..
What are the bookmaker odds for Tottenham vs Leeds United?
Bookmakers give Tottenham a 55% win probability, 24% draw and Leeds United 21% chance of winning. Coach AI estimates 48% for {{HOME_TEAM}}, 25% draw and 27% for {{AWAY_TEAM}}.
How does Coach AI predict this match?
Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.
How often are these football predictions updated?
Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.
How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?
Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.
What is Coach AI's track record?
Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.
What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?
Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.