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Sunderland vs Fulham — Premier League Prediction 22 February 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
Premier League
2
VS
1
schedule 22 Feb, 14:00 · Referee: Craig Pawson (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Fulham
Fulham
Final result
1 – 3
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Sunderland vs Fulham in the Premier League. Sunderland is the favourite with a 38% win probability. Fulham has a 34% chance of winning and 28% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Sunderland vs Fulham

This 11th vs 12th mid-table clash is defined by the contrast between Sunderland's 'fortress' at the Stadium of Light and Fulham's travel sickness. Tactically, Sunderland under Régis Le Bris uses a high line and directness via Brian Brobbey, which should exploit Fulham's tendency to drop points in the second half. Referee Craig Pawson is officiating, generally allowing for a physical contest.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

55%
25%
20%
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Scenario Explanation

Scenario 1: Sunderland takes an early lead through Habib Diarra and holds on despite a Fulham late surge (2-1). Scenario 2: A 1-1 draw (25% likelihood) if Sunderland's midfield fails to adapt to Xhaka's absence. Scenario 3: An away upset (20% likelihood) only if Fulham’s clinical finishers like Raul Jiménez overperform their seasonal xG in a high-variance match.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
Sunderland
Fulham

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.35

Home xG

1.12

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Sunderland Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 0 D · 3 L
▼
▼
▲
▲
11/2 Sunderland AFC 0-1 Liverpool FC L 1.25
7/2 Arsenal FC 3-0 Sunderland AFC L 0.80
2/2 Sunderland AFC 3-0 Burnley FC W 1.35
24/1 West Ham United FC 3-1 Sunderland AFC L 1.38
17/1 Sunderland AFC 2-1 Crystal Palace FC W 1.15

Fulham Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 0 D · 4 L
▼
▲
▲
▼
11/2 Manchester City FC 3-0 Fulham FC L 0.88
7/2 Fulham FC 1-2 Everton FC L 1.28
1/2 Manchester United FC 3-2 Fulham FC L 1.18
24/1 Fulham FC 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC W 1.25
17/1 Leeds United FC 1-0 Fulham FC L 1.27
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Sunderland Home Dominance: The Black Cats have lost only once at home in 13 league matches this season, maintaining a defensive record of just 0.77 goals conceded per home game.

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Fulham Away Frailty: Fulham has conceded 24 goals in 13 away matches, keeping just one away clean sheet all season, which aligns with their recent trend of conceding at least twice in their last three league outings.

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xG Efficiency vs. Volume: Sunderland performs consistently with their xG at home (1.62 per game), while Fulham often struggles to convert chances into points on the road despite maintaining respectable shot volume.

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Key Personnel Absence: The absence of Granit Xhaka (Sunderland) reduces the hosts' midfield control, but Fulham's own injuries (Cairney, Lukic) offset this by thinning their creative depth.

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Injuries & Absentees

Sunderland will likely be without the influential Granit Xhaka (ankle) and Bertrand Traoré (knee), which weakens their mid-block stability. However, the return of Omar Alderete provides a boost to the defense. Fulham misses Tom Cairney and Sasa Lukic, significantly reducing their ability to control the tempo in away environments.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Sunderland vs Fulham?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 38% for Sunderland, 28% draw and 34% for Fulham.

What is the recent form of Sunderland and Fulham?

Sunderland form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L. Fulham form (last 5): 1W-0D-4L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Sunderland vs Fulham?

Sunderland will likely be without the influential Granit Xhaka (ankle) and Bertrand Traoré (knee), which weakens their mid-block stability. However, the return of Omar Alderete provides a boost to the defense. Fulham misses Tom Cairney and Sasa Lukic, significantly reducing their ability to control the tempo in away environments.

What are the current standings for Sunderland and Fulham in the Premier League?

Sunderland are 7th in the Premier League with 54 points from 38 games. Fulham are 11th with 52 points from 38 games.

What time does Sunderland vs Fulham kick off?

Sunderland vs Fulham kicks off on Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 15:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Sunderland vs Fulham?

The referee for Sunderland vs Fulham in the Premier League is Craig Pawson.

What are the key factors for Sunderland vs Fulham?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Sunderland vs Fulham: 1. Sunderland Home Dominance: The Black Cats have lost only once at home in 13 league matches this season, maintaining a defensive record of just 0.77 goals conceded per home game. 2. Fulham Away Frailty: Fulham has conceded 24 goals in 13 away matches, keeping just one away clean sheet all season, which aligns with their recent trend of conceding at least twice in their last three league outings. 3. xG Efficiency vs. Volume: Sunderland performs consistently with their xG at home (1.62 per game), while Fulham often struggles to convert chances into points on the road despite maintaining respectable shot volume. 4. Key Personnel Absence: The absence of Granit Xhaka (Sunderland) reduces the hosts' midfield control, but Fulham's own injuries (Cairney, Lukic) offset this by thinning their creative depth..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.