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Leeds United vs Nottingham — Premier League Prediction 6 February 2026

Leeds United
Leeds United
Premier League
1
VS
1
schedule 06 Feb, 20:00 · Referee: Peter Bankes (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Nottingham
Nottingham
Final result
3 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 for Leeds United vs Nottingham in the Premier League. Leeds United is the favourite with a 43% win probability. Nottingham has a 28% chance of winning and 29% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Leeds United vs Nottingham

This is a high-stakes 'relegation six-pointer' with both teams level on 26 points. Elland Road will provide a hostile atmosphere, but Forest's recent 4-game unbeaten streak (including a 0-0 against Arsenal) suggests they have found the defensive resilience required for survival scraps. Referee Peter Bankes (averaging 4.1 cards per game) is expected to handle a physical encounter with frequent tactical fouls.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
34%
38%
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Scenario Explanation

The narrative suggests a game of 'attack vs. defense.' Leeds will likely dominate 60%+ possession and generate double-digit shots, but their lack of a clinical edge (underperforming xG in 3 of the last 5) meets a Forest side that has mastered the art of the stalemate under Dyche. While Forest's keeper situation is a vulnerability, Leeds' defensive fragility (42 goals conceded) often yields a goal on the counter. The market likely overestimates a Leeds home win due to historical bias; however, the data points toward a low-scoring draw. Value Tip: Under 2.5 goals or Draw. Probabilities: Home Win 34%, Draw 38%, Away Win 28%.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
Leeds United
Nottingham

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.52

Home xG

1.18

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Leeds United Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 2 D · 2 L
▼
▼
31/1 Leeds United FC 0-4 Arsenal FC L 1.15
26/1 Everton FC 1-1 Leeds United FC D 1.38
17/1 Leeds United FC 1-0 Fulham FC W 1.56
7/1 Newcastle United FC 4-3 Leeds United FC L
4/1 Leeds United FC 1-1 Manchester United FC D

Nottingham Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 2 D · 1 L
▲
▼
1/2 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Crystal Palace FC D 1.48
25/1 Brentford FC 0-2 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.02
17/1 Nottingham Forest FC 0-0 Arsenal FC D 1.05
6/1 West Ham United FC 1-2 Nottingham Forest FC W
3/1 Aston Villa FC 3-1 Nottingham Forest FC L
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Key Factors

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Tactical Clash: Leeds' high-intensity press (PPDA ~9.5) and shot volume (13.27/game) vs. Sean Dyche's organized low block and transition-heavy 4-5-1.

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Goalkeeper Crisis: Forest's Matz Sels is a major doubt; new signing Stefan Ortega may be thrust into a high-pressure debut behind a makeshift defense.

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Statistical Regression: Leeds have consistently underperformed their home xG (creating 1.5+ but often netting 1 or 0), while Forest have shown clinical efficiency on the road (averaging 0.92 goals from fewer big chances).

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Injuries & Absentees

Leeds are severely hampered by the absence of midfielder Anton Stach (hip) and striker Lukas Nmecha (hamstring), stripping them of their primary creative link and clinical finisher. Forest face a defensive crisis with Neco Williams suspended and Callum Hudson-Odoi (shoulder) a doubt, which limits their counter-attacking speed on the flanks, forcing a more static, defensive approach.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Leeds United vs Nottingham?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 with a win probability of 43% for Leeds United, 29% draw and 28% for Nottingham.

What is the recent form of Leeds United and Nottingham?

Leeds United form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L. Nottingham form (last 5): 2W-2D-1L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Leeds United vs Nottingham?

Leeds are severely hampered by the absence of midfielder Anton Stach (hip) and striker Lukas Nmecha (hamstring), stripping them of their primary creative link and clinical finisher. Forest face a defensive crisis with Neco Williams suspended and Callum Hudson-Odoi (shoulder) a doubt, which limits their counter-attacking speed on the flanks, forcing a more static, defensive approach.

What are the current standings for Leeds United and Nottingham in the Premier League?

Leeds United are 14th in the Premier League with 47 points from 38 games. Nottingham are 16th with 44 points from 38 games.

What time does Leeds United vs Nottingham kick off?

Leeds United vs Nottingham kicks off on Friday, 6 February 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Leeds United vs Nottingham?

The referee for Leeds United vs Nottingham in the Premier League is Peter Bankes.

What are the key factors for Leeds United vs Nottingham?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Leeds United vs Nottingham: 1. Tactical Clash: Leeds' high-intensity press (PPDA ~9.5) and shot volume (13.27/game) vs. Sean Dyche's organized low block and transition-heavy 4-5-1. 2. Goalkeeper Crisis: Forest's Matz Sels is a major doubt; new signing Stefan Ortega may be thrust into a high-pressure debut behind a makeshift defense. 3. Statistical Regression: Leeds have consistently underperformed their home xG (creating 1.5+ but often netting 1 or 0), while Forest have shown clinical efficiency on the road (averaging 0.92 goals from fewer big chances)..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.