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Leeds United vs Burnley — Premier League Prediction 1 May 2026

Leeds United
Leeds United
Premier League
2
VS
0
schedule 01 May, 19:00 · Referee: Thomas Bramall (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Burnley
Burnley
Final result
3 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 0
✓ Outcome correct
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 for Leeds United vs Burnley in the Premier League. Leeds United is the favourite with a 66% win probability. Burnley has a 14% chance of winning and 20% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Leeds United vs Burnley

This is a 'Safety Celebration' for Leeds vs. 'Professional Pride' for Burnley. Burnley's relegation was confirmed last week, leading to the departure of Scott Parker. Conversely, Leeds reached 40 points but remains technically cautious after the teams below them won recently. Referee Thomas Bramall is officiating; he has a history of controversy with Leeds (wrongly sending off Gudmundsson in March), which might lead to a more disciplined approach from Farke’s men.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

65%
20%
15%
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Scenario Explanation

The most likely scenario (65%) is a controlled Leeds victory where they exploit Burnley's lack of defensive organization under an interim coach. Burnley's moral is at an all-time low after four consecutive losses. There is a 20% chance of a low-scoring draw if Burnley opts for a deep 'parking the bus' strategy to avoid a heavy defeat. A Burnley 'dead-cat bounce' win is highly unlikely (15%) given their 1-in-25 win rate. Leeds' form (DWWDD) and Burnley's average of 2.0 goals conceded per game strongly point toward a comfortable home win.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
Leeds United
Burnley

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.88

Home xG

0.92

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Leeds United Recent Form — Last 5

2 W · 3 D · 0 L
▲
▲
▲
▼
▼
22/4 AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds United FC D 1.45
18/4 Leeds United FC 3-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC W 1.72
13/4 Manchester United FC 1-2 Leeds United FC W 1.15
21/3 Leeds United FC 0-0 Brentford FC D 1.35
15/3 Crystal Palace FC 0-0 Leeds United FC D 1.38

Burnley Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 1 D · 4 L
▼
▼
▼
22/4 Burnley FC 0-1 Manchester City FC L 0.74
19/4 Nottingham Forest FC 4-1 Burnley FC L 0.94
11/4 Burnley FC 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC L 1.05
21/3 Fulham FC 3-1 Burnley FC L 0.92
14/3 Burnley FC 0-0 AFC Bournemouth D 1.10
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Key Factors

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Leeds Efficiency vs. Burnley’s Porous Defense: Leeds have overperformed their xG in three of their last five matches, whereas Burnley concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game (68 total).

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Managerial Crisis: Burnley arrives at Elland Road with interim manager Mike Jackson following Scott Parker's dismissal on April 30, 2026, after their relegation was confirmed.

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Elland Road Advantage: Leeds are unbeaten in their last three home games without conceding a goal, and historically have a strong record against already relegated sides (aggregate 18-3 in recent seasons).

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Statistical Disparity: Leeds averages 12.8 shots per match with high finishing efficiency from Calvert-Lewin (11 goals), while Burnley has managed only one win in their last 25 league matches.

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Injuries & Absentees

Leeds are missing key midfielder Ilia Gruev (season-ending knee) and wing-back Gabriel Gudmundsson (hamstring). However, the return of Anton Stach provides stability. Burnley is severely depleted with Josh Cullen, Connor Roberts, and Jordan Beyer out, leaving their backline vulnerable to Leeds' high-tempo transition play.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Leeds United vs Burnley?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 with a win probability of 66% for Leeds United, 20% draw and 14% for Burnley.

What is the recent form of Leeds United and Burnley?

Leeds United form (last 5): 2W-3D-0L. Burnley form (last 5): 0W-1D-4L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Leeds United vs Burnley?

Leeds are missing key midfielder Ilia Gruev (season-ending knee) and wing-back Gabriel Gudmundsson (hamstring). However, the return of Anton Stach provides stability. Burnley is severely depleted with Josh Cullen, Connor Roberts, and Jordan Beyer out, leaving their backline vulnerable to Leeds' high-tempo transition play.

What are the current standings for Leeds United and Burnley in the Premier League?

Leeds United are 14th in the Premier League with 47 points from 38 games. Burnley are 19th with 22 points from 38 games.

What time does Leeds United vs Burnley kick off?

Leeds United vs Burnley kicks off on Friday, 1 May 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Leeds United vs Burnley?

The referee for Leeds United vs Burnley in the Premier League is Thomas Bramall.

What are the key factors for Leeds United vs Burnley?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Leeds United vs Burnley: 1. Leeds Efficiency vs. Burnley’s Porous Defense: Leeds have overperformed their xG in three of their last five matches, whereas Burnley concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game (68 total). 2. Managerial Crisis: Burnley arrives at Elland Road with interim manager Mike Jackson following Scott Parker's dismissal on April 30, 2026, after their relegation was confirmed. 3. Elland Road Advantage: Leeds are unbeaten in their last three home games without conceding a goal, and historically have a strong record against already relegated sides (aggregate 18-3 in recent seasons). 4. Statistical Disparity: Leeds averages 12.8 shots per match with high finishing efficiency from Calvert-Lewin (11 goals), while Burnley has managed only one win in their last 25 league matches..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.