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Everton vs Sunderland — Premier League Prediction 17 May 2026

Everton
Everton
Premier League
2
VS
1
schedule 17 May, 14:00 · Referee: John Brooks (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
Final result
1 – 3
CoachAI prediction
2 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 for Everton vs Sunderland in the Premier League. Everton is the favourite with a 44% win probability. Sunderland has a 28% chance of winning and 28% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Everton vs Sunderland

This is a battle for a top-half finish between 10th and 12th place. Under David Moyes, Everton has shifted toward high-scoring matches but lacks defensive stability without Branthwaite. Sunderland, under Regis Le Bris, utilizes a flexible 4-2-3-1 that can transition into a stubborn low block. The match takes place at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium in mild, clear conditions, perfect for a high-tempo game.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

35%
40%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

1 victory for Everton (35% likelihood). While a 1-1 draw is statistically the most frequent outcome in their recent H2H history (40% likelihood), the emotional weight of Seamus Coleman's departure and Sunderland's defensive fragility (notably their recent 0-5 collapse against Forest) tips the scale toward the Toffees. Everton's recent trend of high-scoring games (scoring 7 in their last 3) suggests they have the firepower to bypass Sunderland's block, even if their own defense remains vulnerable to a Brian Brobbey counter-attack (25% likelihood of an away win/draw if Everton over-commits).
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
5 Liverpool FC 38 17 9 12 +10 60
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
Everton
Sunderland

Most likely scorelines

2-1 12% 1-1 11% 2-2 9%
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Correct Score Prediction

AI-calculated probability per scoreline

Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 12%
1-1 11%
2-2 9%
Sunderland (Away)
Everton (Home)
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1
7.0%
11.0%
6.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2
8.0%
12.0%
9.0%
2.0%
0.0%
3
6.0%
9.0%
5.0%
1.0%
0.0%
4
2.0%
4.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%

The absence of Branthwaite (EVE) and Ballard (SUN) removes the defensive stabilizers for both sides, while the emotional context of Coleman's farewell and final home game at a new stadium pushes the model away from conservative 0-0/1-0 scores toward high-scoring volatility (2-2, 3-2, 3-1).

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.34

Home xG

1.27

Away xG

Upset Chance

High

Risk of unexpected result

Everton Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 3 D · 2 L
▲
▲
▲
10/5 Crystal Palace FC 2-2 Everton FC D 1.18
4/5 Everton FC 3-3 Manchester City FC D 1.05
25/4 West Ham United FC 2-1 Everton FC L 1.25
19/4 Everton FC 1-2 Liverpool FC L 1.28
11/4 Brentford FC 2-2 Everton FC D 1.18

Sunderland Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 2 D · 2 L
▼
▼
▲
9/5 Sunderland AFC 0-0 Manchester United FC D 1.15
2/5 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1-1 Sunderland AFC D 1.35
24/4 Sunderland AFC 0-5 Nottingham Forest FC L 1.22
19/4 Aston Villa FC 4-3 Sunderland AFC L 1.21
12/4 Sunderland AFC 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur FC W 1.32
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Emotional Farewell: This marks Seamus Coleman's final home game for Everton after 17 years, providing a massive psychological boost for the home side.

trending_up 2

Defensive Absences: Both teams are missing their best center-backs; Everton is without Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring) and Sunderland is missing Dan Ballard (suspension).

person 3

Conversion Efficiency: Everton has been significantly overperforming their xG (e.g., scoring 3 goals from 1.05 xG vs Man City), while Sunderland has been 'shot-shy' and wasteful in front of goal.

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Tactical Stalemate: Both previous meetings this season (Premier League and FA Cup) ended in 1-1 draws, highlighting how closely matched these mid-table sides are.

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Injuries & Absentees

Everton is severely handicapped defensively and in transition with Jarrad Branthwaite, Idrissa Gana Gueye, and Jack Grealish all ruled out. Michael Keane and Jake O'Brien must step up. Sunderland is missing defensive anchor Dan Ballard through suspension and winger Romaine Mundle due to injury, though Bertrand Traore may return to the bench.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Everton vs Sunderland?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-1 with a win probability of 44% for Everton, 28% draw and 28% for Sunderland.

What is the recent form of Everton and Sunderland?

Everton form (last 5): 0W-3D-2L. Sunderland form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Everton vs Sunderland?

Everton is severely handicapped defensively and in transition with Jarrad Branthwaite, Idrissa Gana Gueye, and Jack Grealish all ruled out. Michael Keane and Jake O'Brien must step up. Sunderland is missing defensive anchor Dan Ballard through suspension and winger Romaine Mundle due to injury, though Bertrand Traore may return to the bench.

What is the most likely correct score for Everton vs Sunderland?

According to the score probability matrix, 2-1 is the most likely scoreline (12%), followed by 1-1 (11%) and 2-2 (9%).

What are the current standings for Everton and Sunderland in the Premier League?

Everton are 13th in the Premier League with 49 points from 38 games. Sunderland are 7th with 54 points from 38 games.

What time does Everton vs Sunderland kick off?

Everton vs Sunderland kicks off on Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Everton vs Sunderland?

The referee for Everton vs Sunderland in the Premier League is John Brooks.

What are the key factors for Everton vs Sunderland?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Everton vs Sunderland: 1. Emotional Farewell: This marks Seamus Coleman's final home game for Everton after 17 years, providing a massive psychological boost for the home side. 2. Defensive Absences: Both teams are missing their best center-backs; Everton is without Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring) and Sunderland is missing Dan Ballard (suspension). 3. Conversion Efficiency: Everton has been significantly overperforming their xG (e.g., scoring 3 goals from 1.05 xG vs Man City), while Sunderland has been 'shot-shy' and wasteful in front of goal. 4. Tactical Stalemate: Both previous meetings this season (Premier League and FA Cup) ended in 1-1 draws, highlighting how closely matched these mid-table sides are..

What are the bookmaker odds for Everton vs Sunderland?

Bookmakers give Everton a 54% win probability, 26% draw and Sunderland 20% chance of winning. Coach AI estimates 53% for {{HOME_TEAM}}, 26% draw and 21% for {{AWAY_TEAM}}.

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.