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Everton vs Leeds United — Premier League Prediction 26 January 2026

Everton
Everton
Premier League
1
VS
1
schedule 26 Jan, 20:00 · Referee: Simon Hooper (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Leeds United
Leeds United
Final result
1 – 1
CoachAI prediction
1 – 1
★ Exact score!
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Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 for Everton vs Leeds United in the Premier League. Everton is the favourite with a 39% win probability. Leeds United has a 31% chance of winning and 30% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Everton vs Leeds United

This is a Monday night clash at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everton sits 10th but is only 4 points off the top 4, making this a vital push for Europe. Leeds, in 16th, has an 8-point cushion from the drop zone. The weather is expected to be typical January fare: 41°F (5°C) with 13mph winds, favoring a physical, low-scoring battle.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

40%
35%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

1 D3 L7) but typically rises to the occasion against bigger sides, evidenced by recent draws against Liverpool and Man Utd. The 'Value Tip' lies in the 'Under 2.5 Goals' market or the 'Draw,' as the market may overvalue Everton’s 10th-place ranking while ignoring their specific home-form struggles and creative injury crisis. Probability: Draw 40%, Everton Win 35%, Leeds Win 25%.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
Everton
Leeds United

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.42

Home xG

1.38

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Everton Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
18/1 1-0 Win vs. Aston Villa FC 1.25
7/1 1-1 Draw vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC
4/1 2-4 Loss vs. Brentford FC
30/12 2-0 Win vs. Nottingham Forest FC
27/12 0-0 Draw vs. Burnley FC

Leeds United Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 0 D · 0 L
▼
17/1 1-0 Win vs. Fulham FC 1.56
7/1 3-4 Loss vs. Newcastle United FC
4/1 1-1 Draw vs. Manchester United FC
1/1 0-0 Draw vs. Liverpool FC
28/12 1-1 Draw vs. Sunderland AFC
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Creativity Crisis: Everton lose on-loan star Jack Grealish to a stress fracture; he was the league's top open-play chance creator (38 chances) and Everton's primary assist provider.

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The Homecoming Narrative: Former Everton talisman Dominic Calvert-Lewin returns to Merseyside in peak form, leading Leeds with 9 league goals this season.

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Stadium Curse: Despite being 10th, Everton have struggled at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium, going winless in their last four home matches (L3 D1) compared to a strong away record.

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Injuries & Absentees

Everton is severely depleted in central areas; Jack Grealish is out long-term, and Michael Keane is suspended. Key defenders Jarrad Branthwaite and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall are doubtful, forcing David Moyes to rely on a patched-up backline. Leeds is missing center-back Jaka Bijol and winger Daniel James, while midfield engine Anton Stach is only partially fit after an adductor issue.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Everton vs Leeds United?

Coach AI predicts a score of 1-1 with a win probability of 39% for Everton, 30% draw and 31% for Leeds United.

What is the recent form of Everton and Leeds United?

Everton form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L. Leeds United form (last 5): 0W-0D-0L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Everton vs Leeds United?

Everton is severely depleted in central areas; Jack Grealish is out long-term, and Michael Keane is suspended. Key defenders Jarrad Branthwaite and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall are doubtful, forcing David Moyes to rely on a patched-up backline. Leeds is missing center-back Jaka Bijol and winger Daniel James, while midfield engine Anton Stach is only partially fit after an adductor issue.

What are the current standings for Everton and Leeds United in the Premier League?

Everton are 13th in the Premier League with 49 points from 38 games. Leeds United are 14th with 47 points from 38 games.

What time does Everton vs Leeds United kick off?

Everton vs Leeds United kicks off on Monday, 26 January 2026 at 21:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Everton vs Leeds United?

The referee for Everton vs Leeds United in the Premier League is Simon Hooper.

What are the key factors for Everton vs Leeds United?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Everton vs Leeds United: 1. Creativity Crisis: Everton lose on-loan star Jack Grealish to a stress fracture; he was the league's top open-play chance creator (38 chances) and Everton's primary assist provider. 2. The Homecoming Narrative: Former Everton talisman Dominic Calvert-Lewin returns to Merseyside in peak form, leading Leeds with 9 league goals this season. 3. Stadium Curse: Despite being 10th, Everton have struggled at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium, going winless in their last four home matches (L3 D1) compared to a strong away record..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.