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Chelsea vs Burnley — Premier League Prediction 21 February 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
Premier League
3
VS
1
schedule 21 Feb, 15:00 · Referee: Lewis Smith (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Burnley
Burnley
Final result
1 – 1
CoachAI prediction
3 – 1
✗ Outcome incorrect
Kickoff in —

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Coach AI predicts a score of 3-1 for Chelsea vs Burnley in the Premier League. Chelsea is the favourite with a 78% win probability. Burnley has a 7% chance of winning and 15% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Chelsea vs Burnley

Chelsea (5th) is pushing for a Champions League spot and remains unbeaten in their last five, despite a minor setback in a -2-2 draw with Leeds. Burnley (19th) is desperate for points in a relegation battle but struggles significantly away from home. Weather conditions at Stamford Bridge are expected to be mild (14°C) with a 50% chance of light rain, favoring Chelsea's technical passing game over a physical battle.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

75%
20%
5%
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Scenario Explanation

1 win. A 5% outlier exists for a draw if Chelsea's defensive lapses, seen against Leeds, are exploited by Jaidon Anthony on the counter. Given Burnley's defensive stats and injury list, a high-scoring home win is the most data-backed outcome.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
···
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
Chelsea
Burnley

Projected xG by CoachAI

2.32

Home xG

0.78

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Chelsea Recent Form — Last 5

4 W · 1 D · 0 L
▲
▲
▲
▲
10/2 Chelsea FC 2-2 Leeds United FC D 2.12
7/2 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1-3 Chelsea FC W 2.05
31/1 Chelsea FC 3-2 West Ham United FC W 1.95
28/1 SSC Napoli 2-3 Chelsea FC W 1.55
25/1 Crystal Palace FC 1-3 Chelsea FC W 1.88

Burnley Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 2 D · 2 L
▲
▼
▼
▲
11/2 Crystal Palace FC 2-3 Burnley FC W 0.92
7/2 Burnley FC 0-2 West Ham United FC L 1.25
2/2 Sunderland AFC 3-0 Burnley FC L 1.15
24/1 Burnley FC 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur FC D 1.12
17/1 Liverpool FC 1-1 Burnley FC D 0.85
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Chelsea is dominant in chance creation, maintaining an average xG of 1.94 per match, while Burnley has the league's lowest shot volume.

trending_up 2

Burnley's defense is the 'leakiest' in the league, conceding an average of 2.46 goals per away game this season.

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Burnley's recent 3-2 win over Crystal Palace was a significant xG overperformance (3 goals from 0.92 xG), suggesting an imminent regression to the mean.

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Injuries & Absentees

Chelsea is without Marc Cucurella (hamstring), with 19-year-old Jorrel Hato expected to deputize at left-back. Burnley faces a crisis with at least seven key players out, including midfield anchor Josh Cullen (ACL) and former Chelsea striker Armando Broja. The loss of Cullen severely weakens Burnley's ability to disrupt Chelsea's rhythm in the middle of the pitch.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Chelsea vs Burnley?

Coach AI predicts a score of 3-1 with a win probability of 78% for Chelsea, 15% draw and 7% for Burnley.

What is the recent form of Chelsea and Burnley?

Chelsea form (last 5): 4W-1D-0L. Burnley form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Chelsea vs Burnley?

Chelsea is without Marc Cucurella (hamstring), with 19-year-old Jorrel Hato expected to deputize at left-back. Burnley faces a crisis with at least seven key players out, including midfield anchor Josh Cullen (ACL) and former Chelsea striker Armando Broja. The loss of Cullen severely weakens Burnley's ability to disrupt Chelsea's rhythm in the middle of the pitch.

What are the current standings for Chelsea and Burnley in the Premier League?

Chelsea are 10th in the Premier League with 52 points from 38 games. Burnley are 19th with 22 points from 38 games.

What time does Chelsea vs Burnley kick off?

Chelsea vs Burnley kicks off on Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Chelsea vs Burnley?

The referee for Chelsea vs Burnley in the Premier League is Lewis Smith.

What are the key factors for Chelsea vs Burnley?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Chelsea vs Burnley: 1. Chelsea is dominant in chance creation, maintaining an average xG of 1.94 per match, while Burnley has the league's lowest shot volume. 2. Burnley's defense is the 'leakiest' in the league, conceding an average of 2.46 goals per away game this season. 3. Burnley's recent 3-2 win over Crystal Palace was a significant xG overperformance (3 goals from 0.92 xG), suggesting an imminent regression to the mean..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.