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Burnley vs Brighton Hove — Premier League Prediction 11 April 2026

Burnley
Burnley
Premier League
0
VS
2
schedule 11 Apr, 14:00 · Referee: Thomas Bramall (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Brighton Hove
Brighton Hove
Final result
0 – 2
CoachAI prediction
0 – 2
★ Exact score!
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Coach AI predicts a score of 0-2 for Burnley vs Brighton Hove in the Premier League. Brighton Hove is the favourite with a 53% win probability. Burnley has a 23% chance of winning and 24% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Burnley vs Brighton Hove

This is a 'Desperation vs. Ambition' clash. Burnley (#19) is in a critical fight for survival and must take risks to find a win. Conversely, Brighton (#10) is the league's form team in the mid-table, chasing a European spot. The match will be played in typical cool, overcast Lancashire conditions, which usually favors a physical battle, but Brighton's technical superiority has proven resilient in recent away fixtures.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

55%
60%
25%
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Scenario Explanation

The most likely scenario (55%) is a controlled Brighton victory. Despite missing Dunk, Brighton's midfield dominance over Burnley’s depleted pivot will likely lead to 60%+ possession and high-quality chances for Welbeck and Mitoma. There is a 25% probability of a draw if Burnley manages to turn Turf Moor into a physical 'grind' and exploits Dunk's absence on set pieces. A Burnley upset (20%) would require an outlier performance from Dubravka and clinical finishing on rare counters, which current xG trends (avg 1.06 goals) suggest is unlikely against a Brighton side conceding only 0.6 goals per game recently.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
19 Burnley FC 38 4 10 24 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 38 3 11 24 -41 20
···
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
Burnley
Brighton Hove

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.05

Home xG

1.65

Away xG

Upset Chance

Low

Risk of unexpected result

Burnley Recent Form — Last 5

0 W · 2 D · 3 L
▼
▼
▲
21/3 Fulham FC 3-1 Burnley FC L 0.92
14/3 Burnley FC 0-0 AFC Bournemouth D 1.10
3/3 Everton FC 2-0 Burnley FC L 1.05
28/2 Burnley FC 3-4 Brentford FC L 1.12
21/2 Chelsea FC 1-1 Burnley FC D 0.78

Brighton Hove Recent Form — Last 5

4 W · 0 D · 1 L
▲
▼
▼
21/3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2-1 Liverpool FC W 1.45
14/3 Sunderland AFC 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC W 1.55
4/3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Arsenal FC L 1.28
1/3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 2-1 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.70
21/2 Brentford FC 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC W 1.63
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Key Factors

sports_soccer 1

Tactical Mismatch: Brighton's high-pressing system (one of the league's best) directly targets Burnley's main weakness—committing turnovers under pressure.

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Midfield Crisis: Burnley is missing their entire core engine room with Josh Cullen, Josh Laurent, and Hannibal Mejbri all unavailable, leaving a massive technical gap.

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Momentum & xG: Brighton has won 4 of their last 5 matches, including a 2-1 victory over Liverpool, while Burnley has won only 1 of their last 22 Premier League games.

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Injuries & Absentees

Burnley faces a severe selection crisis in midfield and defense with Cullen, Laurent (suspended), Mejbri, Beyer, and Amdouni all out. The 'Replacement Impact' is high, as Burnley loses their primary ball-winners. Brighton misses captain Lewis Dunk (suspended), which weakens their aerial defense, but Olivier Boscagli is a capable technical replacement in their ball-oriented system.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Burnley vs Brighton Hove?

Coach AI predicts a score of 0-2 with a win probability of 23% for Burnley, 24% draw and 53% for Brighton Hove.

What is the recent form of Burnley and Brighton Hove?

Burnley form (last 5): 0W-2D-3L. Brighton Hove form (last 5): 4W-0D-1L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Burnley vs Brighton Hove?

Burnley faces a severe selection crisis in midfield and defense with Cullen, Laurent (suspended), Mejbri, Beyer, and Amdouni all out. The 'Replacement Impact' is high, as Burnley loses their primary ball-winners. Brighton misses captain Lewis Dunk (suspended), which weakens their aerial defense, but Olivier Boscagli is a capable technical replacement in their ball-oriented system.

What are the current standings for Burnley and Brighton Hove in the Premier League?

Burnley are 19th in the Premier League with 22 points from 38 games. Brighton Hove are 8th with 53 points from 38 games.

What time does Burnley vs Brighton Hove kick off?

Burnley vs Brighton Hove kicks off on Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 16:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Burnley vs Brighton Hove?

The referee for Burnley vs Brighton Hove in the Premier League is Thomas Bramall.

What are the key factors for Burnley vs Brighton Hove?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Burnley vs Brighton Hove: 1. Tactical Mismatch: Brighton's high-pressing system (one of the league's best) directly targets Burnley's main weakness—committing turnovers under pressure. 2. Midfield Crisis: Burnley is missing their entire core engine room with Josh Cullen, Josh Laurent, and Hannibal Mejbri all unavailable, leaving a massive technical gap. 3. Momentum & xG: Brighton has won 4 of their last 5 matches, including a 2-1 victory over Liverpool, while Burnley has won only 1 of their last 22 Premier League games..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.