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Brighton Hove vs Nottingham — Premier League Prediction 1 March 2026

Brighton Hove
Brighton Hove
Premier League
2
VS
0
schedule 01 Mar, 14:00 · Referee: Andy Madley (England)
Predicted Score

Last update of insights: 30 May 2026

Nottingham
Nottingham
Final result
2 – 1
CoachAI prediction
2 – 0
✓ Outcome correct
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Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 for Brighton Hove vs Nottingham in the Premier League. Brighton Hove is the favourite with a 47% win probability. Nottingham has a 26% chance of winning and 27% ends in a draw. See the full analysis, injuries and score matrix below.

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Brighton Hove vs Nottingham

This is a clash between 14th-placed Brighton and 17th-placed Forest. Brighton's recent win over Brentford has eased relegation fears, while Forest remains in a dogfight. Tactically, Fabian Hurzeler's high-pressing 4-3-3 will likely overwhelm a tired Forest side that has struggled to score recently (zero goals in their last 56 shots despite 3.86 xG). The coastal weather at the Amex often includes wind and drizzle, which favors Brighton's short-passing game over Forest's long-ball counters.

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Match Scenario's

Three most likely match scenarios

60%
25%
15%
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Scenario Explanation

Scenario 1: Brighton takes advantage of Forest's tired legs and goalkeeping instability to score early and control the game (60% likelihood). Scenario 2: Forest sets up a very deep low-block and manages to frustrate Brighton, leading to a low-scoring draw or a narrow 1-0 (25% likelihood). Scenario 3: Forest finds a rare clinical moment on the counter-attack through Gibbs-White to steal an upset (15% likelihood). Given the European fatigue and Brighton's superior underlying metrics, a 2-0 home win is the most statistically grounded outcome.
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Current Standings

Position in the competition

Pos Team Pld W D L GD Pts
6 AFC Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
7 Sunderland AFC 38 14 12 12 -6 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 38 14 11 13 +6 53
9 Brentford FC 38 14 11 13 +3 53
10 Chelsea FC 38 14 10 14 +6 52
11 Fulham FC 38 15 7 16 -4 52
12 Newcastle United FC 38 14 7 17 -2 49
13 Everton FC 38 13 10 15 -3 49
14 Leeds United FC 38 11 14 13 -7 47
15 Crystal Palace FC 38 11 12 15 -10 45
16 Nottingham Forest FC 38 11 11 16 -3 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur FC 38 10 11 17 -9 41
18 West Ham United FC 38 10 9 19 -19 39
Brighton Hove
Nottingham

Projected xG by CoachAI

1.70

Home xG

1.10

Away xG

Upset Chance

Medium

Risk of unexpected result

Brighton Hove Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 1 D · 3 L
▼
▼
▼
▼
21/2 Brentford FC 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC W 1.63
11/2 Aston Villa FC 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion FC L 1.62
8/2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-1 Crystal Palace FC L 1.67
31/1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1-1 Everton FC D 1.68
24/1 Fulham FC 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion FC L 1.55

Nottingham Recent Form — Last 5

1 W · 2 D · 2 L
▼
▼
▲
22/2 Nottingham Forest FC 0-1 Liverpool FC L 1.15
11/2 Nottingham Forest FC 0-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC D 1.42
6/2 Leeds United FC 3-1 Nottingham Forest FC L 1.18
1/2 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Crystal Palace FC D 1.48
25/1 Brentford FC 0-2 Nottingham Forest FC W 1.02
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Key Factors

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Brighton xG Regression: Brighton has consistently generated high xG (avg 1.63 in last 5) but underperformed until their recent 2-0 win; a positive regression to the mean is likely.

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Forest Fatigue & Schedule: Nottingham Forest played a high-intensity Europa League match against Fenerbahce on Thursday night, leaving them with significantly less recovery time than Brighton.

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Goalkeeper & Defensive Crisis: Forest are facing a shortage of reliable goalkeepers with Sels and Victor out, while Brighton's attacking core (Welbeck, Mitoma) is returning to full fitness.

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Injuries & Absentees

Nottingham Forest is severely hampered by the absence of lead striker Chris Wood and key defenders like Willy Boly. Most critically, their goalkeeping situation is dire with Matz Sels out and backup Stefan Ortega doubtful. Brighton is near full strength, with veteran James Milner cleared to play and Yasin Ayari returning to the squad.

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Frequently Asked Questions about this prediction

What is the Coach AI prediction for Brighton Hove vs Nottingham?

Coach AI predicts a score of 2-0 with a win probability of 47% for Brighton Hove, 27% draw and 26% for Nottingham.

What is the recent form of Brighton Hove and Nottingham?

Brighton Hove form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Nottingham form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L.

What are the injury and suspension updates for Brighton Hove vs Nottingham?

Nottingham Forest is severely hampered by the absence of lead striker Chris Wood and key defenders like Willy Boly. Most critically, their goalkeeping situation is dire with Matz Sels out and backup Stefan Ortega doubtful. Brighton is near full strength, with veteran James Milner cleared to play and Yasin Ayari returning to the squad.

What are the current standings for Brighton Hove and Nottingham in the Premier League?

Brighton Hove are 8th in the Premier League with 53 points from 38 games. Nottingham are 16th with 44 points from 38 games.

What time does Brighton Hove vs Nottingham kick off?

Brighton Hove vs Nottingham kicks off on Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 15:00 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

Who is the referee for Brighton Hove vs Nottingham?

The referee for Brighton Hove vs Nottingham in the Premier League is Andy Madley.

What are the key factors for Brighton Hove vs Nottingham?

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Brighton Hove vs Nottingham: 1. Brighton xG Regression: Brighton has consistently generated high xG (avg 1.63 in last 5) but underperformed until their recent 2-0 win; a positive regression to the mean is likely. 2. Forest Fatigue & Schedule: Nottingham Forest played a high-intensity Europa League match against Fenerbahce on Thursday night, leaving them with significantly less recovery time than Brighton. 3. Goalkeeper & Defensive Crisis: Forest are facing a shortage of reliable goalkeepers with Sels and Victor out, while Brighton's attacking core (Welbeck, Mitoma) is returning to full fitness..

How does Coach AI predict this match?

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

How often are these football predictions updated?

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

How accurate are the Coach AI predictions?

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction — significantly above the market average.

What is Coach AI's track record?

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

What data does Coach AI use for its predictions?

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.