Arsenal vs Chelsea: Premier League Prediction 1 March 2026

Arsenal beat Chelsea 2-1 in the Premier League (matchday 28) on 1 March 2026.

Coach AI predicted 3-1: the right outcome, but not the exact score. The fans predicted Arsenal win (100%), which was right.

Coach AI predicts 3-1 as the correct score for Arsenal vs Chelsea. This page also covers the expected line-ups, injuries and xG.

Arsenal form (last 5): 3W-2D-0L. Chelsea form (last 5): 3W-2D-0L.

Arsenal: Bukayo Saka is expected to start despite a knock against Spurs. Kai Havertz and Ben White are late fitness tests but likely to feature. Mikel Merino remains out. Chelsea: Severe defensive crisis with Wesley Fofana (suspended), Marc Cucurella (hamstring), and Levi Colwill (long-term) all unavailable. The loss of Fofana specifically removes their primary physical presence against Arsenal's Viktor Gyökeres.

Arsenal score at home 2.4 goals on average and concede 0.6 (13 matches). Chelsea score away 1.9 goals on average and concede 1.2 (13 matches).

Football Meister has recorded 1 previous meeting between Arsenal and Chelsea: Arsenal won 0, Chelsea won 0 and 1 ended in a draw. The goal tally is 1-1.

The last meeting was on 30 Nov 2025: Chelsea - Arsenal 1-1.

Among Football Meister players, 100% back a home win for Arsenal, 0% a draw, and 0% an away win for Chelsea. The most predicted scoreline is 3-1. Fans are more bullish than Coach AI on Arsenal: fans pick 100% home win, Coach AI calculates 60%.

The most predicted scoreline for Arsenal vs Chelsea is 3-1. Of all Football Meister players, 100% back Arsenal, 0% a draw and 0% Chelsea.

Arsenal are 2nd in the Premier League with 18 points from 7 games. Chelsea are 4th with 13 points from 7 games.

Arsenal vs Chelsea kicks off on Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 16:30 (Central European Time). The match is part of the Premier League.

The referee for Arsenal vs Chelsea in the Premier League is Darren England.

Coach AI identifies three decisive factors for Arsenal vs Chelsea: 1. Clinical Efficiency: Arsenal is significantly overperforming their xG (e.g., scoring 4 goals from 2.05 xG vs Spurs), while Chelsea has shown wasteful finishing, scoring only 1 goal from 2.32 xG against Burnley. 2. Defensive Depletion: Chelsea enters the derby without suspended defensive anchor Wesley Fofana and injured Marc Cucurella, leaving a reshuffled backline to face the league's most efficient attack. 3. Tactical Superiority: Arsenal's high-pressing intensity (PPDA of 9.88) is likely to disrupt Chelsea's build-up play under Liam Rosenior, which has struggled with discipline and late-game concentration lapses..

Coach AI sees Arsenal as the stronger side in Arsenal vs Chelsea. The full analysis with the expected score, xG and injuries is on this page.

Coach AI analyzes thousands of data points, including xG, recent form, team news, and tactical developments for every match.

Insights are updated daily to incorporate the latest developments, injuries, and market movements.

Coach AI has analyzed over 1,000 matches. In 50% of cases, the correct outcome (home win, draw, or away win) is predicted accurately. In more than 10% of matches, the exact final score matches the prediction, significantly above the market average.

Coach AI has predicted over 1,000 matches: 50% correct outcome, 10%+ exact final score. The model consistently outperforms standard probability calculations and gives football fans the data they need to make truly informed predictions.

Coach AI combines Expected Goals (xG), recent team form over the last five matches, head-to-head records, up-to-date injury news, and tactical match-up analysis. The model is updated daily so every prediction reflects the most current information available.